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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
SD

SD

14-7

4
1
LAA

LAA

11-11

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,279 attended

Line movement

27 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

LAA no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0LAA SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL54.0%46.0%LAA NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 26, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 4 · LAA 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000224
LAA0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 98
    220
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    252
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    53
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    222
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    220
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 94
    221
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasLAA -110

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 4–1.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD14-7
4
1
LAA11-11
SD14-7·LAA11-11
SD

SD

14-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44012002
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-44022011
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-55000003
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-33020001
SPRINT26.530
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-22000001
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-22210021
SPRINT26.838
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-11110020
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
1-11110000
SPRINT27.354
G. SheetsG. Sheets1B
0-22000000
Team9-32324940510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. MarquezG. Marquez★SP
5.2200250
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.1000120
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0311010
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0100120
Team9.06114100
LAA

LAA

11-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-33011011
SPRINT25.920
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000011
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-44000003
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000001
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44110002
SPRINT27.251
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-44010000
V. GrissomV. Grissom2B
0-11000010
Team6-32321610410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
6.0400180
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0322200
N. SandlinN. SandlinRP
1.2222220
S. AndersonS. AndersonRP
0.1000000
Team9.09445100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SL
      62%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·101.8 mph·100% whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1today
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1today
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD-11052%
LAALAA-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 8th Inning

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Marquez

G. Marquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat LAA 4-1. Laureano's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 7th Inning · 0-0
+14pp→ 62% WP

Adell · walked.

SDTop 8th Inning · 1-0
+19pp→ 88% WP

Laureano · singled to center, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.

SDTop 9th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 87% WP

Johnson · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000224
LAA0000000101

Period scoring

SD won 2 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Laureano 1

Schanuel 1

2
0

Inn 9

Laureano 1

SD
LAA

Play-by-play · 590 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 4·LAA 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  3. B9

    Frazier grounded out to second.

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  7. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Adam Frazier

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  9. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

    −5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  13. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  14. B9

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  15. B9

    Grissom walked, Moncada to second.

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

    +5pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  20. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Vaughn Grissom

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  21. B9

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  22. B9

    Peraza struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

    −4pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  26. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Oswald Peraza

    · ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  27. B9

    ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  28. B9

    Moncada singled to right.

    ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

    +5pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 4·LAA 1

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

4

Runs

1

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

10

TB

8

0

HR

0

5

BB

4

10

K

10

20

LOB

18

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 9.5·SD -110/LAA -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    45.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.4%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.