MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DET

DET

12-10

BOS

8-13

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,650 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

BOS no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.2%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.2%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Keider MonteroDET
2.3± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

BOS

.705

OPS

.717

.698

.315

OBP

.319

.314

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

3.94

Team ERA

4.18

3.91

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.29

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 6 · BOS 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	6
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. JonesDH	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. Torres2B	.238	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
M. VierlingCF	.235	5	2	2	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.302	5	1	4	4	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.038	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. Lee2B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BaezSS	.293	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.232	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		37	6	12	6	2	3	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.200

.238

.235

.302

.247

.038

.182

.000

.293

.232

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. ValdezSP	6.0	3	1	1	2	7	98
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19
C. SeaboldRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	15
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	10	151

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. MonasterioSS	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.279	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. StorySS	.193	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
W. AbreuRF	.312	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. RafaelaCF	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. Durbin3B	.141	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.205	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.174	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.173	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	6	2	1	3	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. CrochetSP	5.0	7	5	5	2	8	93
R. WatsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
J. AndersonRP	3.0	3	1	1	1	0	41
Team	9.0	12	6	6	3	8	150

Team

DET

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.