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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CHC
NYM

NYM

7-14

2
4
CHC

CHC

11-9

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
36,189 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

CHC no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0CHC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.7%47.7%CHC NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMMay 29, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

NYM 2 · CHC 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0100000102
CHC010003004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 98
    261
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 97
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    182
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    72
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0/VegasCHC -118

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off New York Mets, 4–2.

CHC +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM7-14
2
4
CHC11-9
NYM7-14·CHC11-9
NYM

NYM

7-14

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-33000011
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT25.716
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT2993
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-33000012
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000000
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-22000010
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11000000
T. PhamT. PhamLF
0-11000001
Team7-3333271147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.2333231
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2111001
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2000000
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0100100
Team8.0544332
CHC

CHC

11-9

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000000
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-22211120
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-22100010
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-22010001
SPRINT24.53
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
1-33010000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000001
C. KellyC. KellyC
1-11113100
SPRINT25.716
Team5-2828454233
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
6.0511341
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0210110
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000020
Team9.0721471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • F. Peralta
    93 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CS
      8%·74.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·92.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.3 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      7%·80.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      44%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      38%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    100 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      28%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      23%·85.0 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·79.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Brown
    38 pitches·26% CSW
    • KC
      42%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      36%·77.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.4 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

Apr 17NYMNYM4@CHCCHC12
Apr 18NYMNYM2@CHCCHC4today
Apr 19NYMNYM1@CHCCHC2

Season series

CHC lead series 2-0

Apr 17NYMNYM4@CHCCHC12
Apr 18NYMNYM2@CHCCHC4today
Apr 19NYMNYM1@CHCCHC2
Jun 22CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 23CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 24CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 25CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-10250%
CHCCHC-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat NYM 4-2. Kelly's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

CHC vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 53% WP

Vientos · homered to left center (434 feet).

CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 59% WP

Happ · homered to center (431 feet).

CHCBottom 6th Inning · 1-4
+29pp→ 92% WP

Kelly · homered to left center (405 feet), Happ scored and Suzuki scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0100000102
CHC01000300—4

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Vientos 1

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Kelly 3

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Bichette 1

0

Inn 9

NYM
CHC

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  2. T9

    Taylor flied out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  8. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  9. T9

    Taylor hit for Benge

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  10. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  11. T9

    Semien struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  15. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  16. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  17. T9

    Pham struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

    +3pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  24. T9

    Caleb Thielbar pitches to Tommy Pham

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  25. T9

    Thielbar relieved Brown

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  26. T9

    Pham hit for Baty

    ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  29. B8

    · ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

  30. B8

    Suzuki flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 2·CHC 4

    −0.6pp

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

4

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

11

TB

11

1

HR

2

4

BB

3

7

K

3

16

LOB

8

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYM -102/CHC -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.5± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278