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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
WSH

WSH

3-2

2
3
PHI

PHI

2-3

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,709 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

PHI no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 64.3%May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000011002
PHI001110003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    212
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    261
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    261
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Mar 31·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -199

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Washington Nationals, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Adolis Garcia

Adolis Garcia

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH3-2
2
3
PHI2-3
WSH3-2·PHI2-3
WSH

WSH

3-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-55011002
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
3-44030000
SPRINT29.395
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.838
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-44000001
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-44000003
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-33000012
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT29.899
C. MeadC. Mead1B
0-11000010
Team8-35352810212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. PoulinP. Poulin★RP
1.0000010
Z. LittellZ. LittellSP
5.0633212
K. WaldichukK. WaldichukRP
2.0100000
Team8.0733222
PHI

PHI

2-3

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-33111111
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000010
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-33121100
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33010000
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000000
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.798
Team7-3030373222
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PainterA. Painter★SP
5.1411180
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.2311020
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000100
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100020
Team9.08222120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    75 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      31%·91.5 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      21%·83.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Waldichuk
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      61%·81.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      67%·80.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      22%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·90.5 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Painter
    84 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.7 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      35%·86.8 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      35%·82.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Duran
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FS
      45%·97.9 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      25%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3today
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3today
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6
Jun 22PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 23PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 24PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 25PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 3WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 4WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 5WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 6WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 15PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 16PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+16338%
PHIPHI-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
A. Garcia

A. Garcia

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 3-2.

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 61% WP

Schwarber · homered to right center (397 feet).

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 76% WP

Garc · ía homered to right (349 feet).

WSHTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+12pp→ 25% WP

Wood · doubled to first, Nuñez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000011002
PHI00111000—3

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PHI won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Schwarber 1

0
1

Inn 4

Garc 1

0
1

Inn 5

Crawford 1

1
0

Inn 6

Lile 1

1
0

Inn 7

Wood 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  2. T9

    Wood lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  7. T9

    Nuñez stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  8. T9

    Nuñez stole second.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  11. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  12. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  13. T9

    Nuñez reached on infield single to second.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    −4pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  18. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Nasim Nunez

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  19. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  20. T9

    Wiemer struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    +5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  26. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Joey Wiemer

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  27. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  28. T9

    Tena struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    +3pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

10

TB

13

0

HR

2

2

BB

2

12

K

2

15

LOB

13

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 9.5·WSH +163/PHI -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.9%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.