Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — May 3, 2026

FINAL+1SD

CHW

16-18

20-13

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,171 attended

Line movement

97 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

59.8%

open 61.6% · -1.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.7%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.2%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
5.8± 1.8medium
Michael KingSD
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Samad TaylorSD
1.4± 1.1low
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Colson MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 1.9high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.7± 1.6high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.4± 3.2low
Randy VasquezSD
2.8± 2.1medium
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.729

OPS

◀

.719

.657

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.40

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.90

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CHW 3 · SD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	3
SD	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Murakami1B	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. BenintendiDH	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.227	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
C. Meidroth2B	.267	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
J. KelenicRF	.167	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.169	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. RomoC	.300	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.220	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.263	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
E. QueroC	.162	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	7	3	2	3	15

Player

.255

.223

.200

.227

.267

.167

.284

.169

.300

.220

.263

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	5.0	7	3	2	1	5	86
J. LeasureRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
T. DavisRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	18
B. HudsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	26
Team	8.0	9	4	3	2	8	140

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LaureanoLF	.237	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
M. AndujarDH	.316	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.229	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.269	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. France1B	.283	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.164	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.170	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.147	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	9	3	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CanningSP	5.0	3	1	1	3	7	73
A. MorejonRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	4	31
J. AdamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	15	136

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.