Matchup orbital

SF

SF

SF

13-19

Sat, 6:10 PM EDT

Win prob

41/59

AWAY · HOME

TB

TB

TB

19-12

Place your bet

+100Bet TB ML↗+100Bet TB ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Landen Roupp

Landen Roupp

SP · #65

5-1

W-L

2.55

ERA

0.91

WHIP

37

K

35.1

IP

Last 3 starts

vsMIAW(5-1)7.2 IP3 ER6 K
vsLADW(4-1)5.0 IP1 ER7 K
@CINW(3-1)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

Home starter

Griffin Jax

Griffin Jax

RP · #22

1-2

W-L

6.35

ERA

1.68

WHIP

12

K

11.1

IP

Last 3 starts

vsMIN-2.1 IP0 ER2 K
vsCIN-1.1 IP2 ER3 K
@PITW(1-2)1.0 IP0 ER2 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money-120 / +100

Model edge

Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesTB leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take TB on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

+100Bet TB ML↗+100Bet TB ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗
O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

SF

  1. 1.J. LeeRF
  2. 2.L. Arraez2B
  3. 3.C. SchmittDH
  4. 4.R. Devers1B
  5. 5.M. Chapman3B
  6. 6.W. AdamesSS
  7. 7.H. RamosLF
  8. 8.D. GilbertCF
  9. 9.P. BaileyC

TB

  1. 1.C. SimpsonLF
  2. 2.C. MullinsCF
  3. 3.J. Caminero3B
  4. 4.J. Aranda1B
  5. 5.J. FraleyDH
  6. 6.R. Palacios2B
  7. 7.J. DeLucaRF
  8. 8.H. FeducciaC
  9. 9.T. WallsSS
Model vs marketLock
DraftKings · snapped 10m ago
+11.3ppon TBTB
SFSFWin prob axisTBTB
Market 48%
Model 59%
0%50%100%
ModelTB 59%Pre-game prob
MarketTB 48%No-vig · 4.5% hold
Edge+11.3ppModel finds value
SFSF -120/TBTB +100
+100Bet TB ML↗+100Bet TB ML↗
The One modelEdge
Sat, May 2
SF

SF

Giants

13-19

vs59%TB

TB★

Rays

19-12

TB
SF 41%win prob59% TB
TB 1513 · SF 1473Box score→
← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Sat, May 25/2 - 6:10 PM EDT
SF

SF13-19

SF

@

19-12TB

TB

TB
SeriesTB leads series 1-0VegasSF -120

Preview · MLB

an Francisco Giants visit Tampa Bay Rays Saturday at 5/2 - 6:10 PM EDT. TB is 8-4 in their last 12.

Vegas opened SF as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 7.5. TB's moneyline implies a 50% break-even, SF the inverse. TB is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the SF side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 7.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 210 over 6.2hjust now
5/2 - 6:10 PM EDTScheduled
Updated 0s ago
SF
SF13-190
5/2 - 6:10 PM EDT
TB
TB19-120

Current series

TB leads series 1-0

May 1SFSF0@TBTB3
May 2SFSF@TBTBtoday
May 3SFSF@TBTBupcoming

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

May 1SFSF0@TBTB3
May 2SFSF@TBTBtoday
May 3SFSF@TBTBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-12055%
TBTB+10050%

210· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
SFSFSP
L. Roupp

L. Roupp

#65 · 5-1

ERA

2.55

K

37

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26vsMIAMIA7.2 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(5-1)
4/22vsLADLAD5.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(4-1)
4/16@CINCIN6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 KW(3-1)
TBTBRP
G. Jax

G. Jax

#22 · 1-2

ERA

6.35

K

12

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/26vsMINMIN2.1 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-
4/21vsCINCIN1.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 K-
4/18@PITPIT1.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 KW(1-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
SFSF4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    J. Lee

    RF

    L
  2. 2

    L. Arraez

    2B

    L
  3. 3

    C. Schmitt

    DH

    R
  4. 4

    R. Devers

    1B

    L
  5. 5

    M. Chapman

    3B

    R
  6. 6

    W. Adames

    SS

    R
  7. 7

    H. Ramos

    LF

    R
  8. 8

    D. Gilbert

    CF

    L
  9. 9

    P. Bailey

    C

    B
TBTB6L · 2R · 1S
  1. 1

    C. Simpson

    LF

    L
  2. 2

    C. Mullins

    CF

    L
  3. 3

    J. Caminero

    3B

    R
  4. 4

    J. Aranda

    1B

    L
  5. 5

    J. Fraley

    DH

    L
  6. 6

    R. Palacios

    2B

    L
  7. 7

    J. DeLuca

    RF

    R
  8. 8

    H. Feduccia

    C

    L
  9. 9

    T. Walls

    SS

    B

Scouting report

SF @ TB

5/2 - 6:10 PM EDT
StorylineSF dropped 4 straight.

Rest going in

SFB2B

0 days

last game May 1

TBB2B

0 days

last game May 1

Model edge vs market

Lean only
Spread

Market

SF -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

7.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

SF -120

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

SFmetricTB

13-19

Record

19-12

#14

Conf rank

#2

-0.9

Pt diff

0.0

L4

Streak

W1

4-6

Last 10

7-3

Bullpen used yesterday

SF

1.7 bullpen IP

  • J. Brubaker1.2 IP21 P

L 3-0 · May 1

TB

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

  • I. Seymour1.0 IP14 P
  • C. Sulser1.0 IP10 P
  • B. Baker1.0 IP12 P

W 3-0 · May 1

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

TB

Home

265

Hits

261

15

Errors

25

104

Runs

140

Player box score

SF

SF

13-19

0
J. Lee

J. Lee★

RF

OPS

0.649

H-AB

34-114

RBI

11

HR

2

L. Arraez

L. Arraez★

2B

OPS

0.607

H-AB

37-122

RBI

11

HR

0

C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt★

1B

OPS

0.729

H-AB

29-96

RBI

14

HR

4

R. Devers

R. Devers★

1B

OPS

0.468

H-AB

26-124

RBI

11

HR

2

M. Chapman

M. Chapman★

3B

OPS

0.549

H-AB

32-122

RBI

12

HR

1

W. Adames

W. Adames★

SS

OPS

0.472

H-AB

25-125

RBI

6

HR

3

H. Ramos

H. Ramos★

LF

OPS

0.623

H-AB

31-114

RBI

15

HR

3

D. Gilbert

D. Gilbert★

CF

OPS

0.682

H-AB

12-44

RBI

5

HR

2

P. Bailey

P. Bailey★

C

OPS

0.355

H-AB

12-76

RBI

5

HR

1

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

--

HR

--

L. Roupp

L. Roupp★

SP

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Team total

IP

--.--

H

--

ER

--

K

--

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 7.5·SF -120/TB +100

DraftKings · via ESPN