• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3DET
DET

DET

11-10

4
1
BOS

BOS

8-12

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,527 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

BOS no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0BOS SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL47.7%39.7%BOS NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · BOS 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET1003000004
BOS0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasDET -143

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 4–1.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET11-10
4
1
BOS8-12
DET11-10·BOS8-12
DET

DET

11-10

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-55121000
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010002
SPRINT25.18
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22000021
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000003
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-33122111
SPRINT26.735
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33100010
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT27.251
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
1-33011000
D. DinglerD. DinglerC
0-22000000
Team8-3434484147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
6.04112100
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
2.0000020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0100000
Team9.05112120
BOS

BOS

8-12

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.457
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44010003
SPRINT26.838
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000003
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.790
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000011
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000000
Team5-31311500212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
4.0544341
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
3.0100130
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0100000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0100000
Team9.0844471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    89 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      31%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.8 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      54%·86.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FC
      71%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.2 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      31%·87.3 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Moran
    41 pitches·34% CSW
    • CH
      44%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      41%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      15%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FC
      63%·90.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1today
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1today
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8
May 4BOSBOS5@DETDET4
May 5BOSBOS10@DETDET3
May 6BOSBOS4@DETDET0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-14359%
BOSBOS+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 4th Inning

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
R. Anthony

R. Anthony

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

DET beat BOS 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 77% WP

Carpenter · homered to right (396 feet).

DETBottom 5th Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 85% WP

Wong · grounded into double play, second to first, Abreu scored, Durbin out at second, Rafaela to third.

BOSBottom 6th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 31% WP

Monasterio · singled to right, Anthony to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET1003000004
BOS0000100001

Period scoring

DET won 2 · BOS won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Carpenter 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Carpenter 1

0
1

Inn 5

Wong 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 4·BOS 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  3. B9

    Rafaela fouled out to first.

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  9. B9

    Story to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  10. B9

    Story to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  12. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  14. B9

    Abreu lined out to left.

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

    −3pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  16. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  17. B9

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  18. B9

    Story grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Trevor Story

    · ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  22. B9

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  23. B9

    Contreras singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

    +5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  29. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

  30. B9

    Jansen relieved Holton

    ·

    DET 4·BOS 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

13

TB

6

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

7

K

12

14

LOB

15

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET -143/BOS +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.1high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 97
    74
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    230
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 96
    73
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    232
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs