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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PIT
PIT

PIT

8-5

2
0
CHC

CHC

6-7

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
28,811 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CHC no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL62.3%54.3%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 57.0%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 2 · CHC 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000002002
CHC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    60
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    71
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    20
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -156

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 2–0.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT8-5
2
0
CHC6-7
PIT8-5·CHC6-7
PIT

PIT

8-5

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.662
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.735
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44112101
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-33000001
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-22010011
SPRINT28.483
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33000001
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-22000002
B. CookB. Cook★RF
0-33000002
Team3-29292321111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
5.1600320
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2000120
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000100
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0000200
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000020
Team9.0600760
CHC

CHC

6-7

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010010
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-55000002
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-11010030
SPRINT25.716
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
0-22000000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000011
M. ShawM. ShawRF
0-22000001
Team6-3131060076
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.0000190
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2322001
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
1.1000010
R. MartinR. MartinRP
1.0000010
Team9.03221111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    81 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·99.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      54%·85.3 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    100 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      52%·92.0 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      38%·83.2 mph·39% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Roberts
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      53%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      41%·91.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Martin
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      69%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      23%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0today
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0today
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+12944%
CHCCHC-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 7th Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CHC 2-0. Reynolds's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 7th Inning · 2-0
+27pp→ 80% WP

Reynolds · homered to left (385 feet), O'Hearn scored.

PITTop 8th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 87% WP

Bart · hit by pitch.

PITBottom 8th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 93% WP

Shaw · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000002002
CHC0000000000

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Reynolds 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
CHC

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  3. B9

    Busch struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  9. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  10. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  11. B9

    Hoerner popped out to third.

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  15. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  16. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  17. B9

    Swanson struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

    −4pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  23. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  24. B9

    Santana relieved Soto

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  25. B9

    Mangum in left field.

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  28. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  29. T9

    Ozuna struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·CHC 0

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

2

Runs

0

3

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

6

TB

6

1

HR

0

1

BB

7

11

K

6

4

LOB

26

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +129/CHC -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

CHC vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    57.1%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.