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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
BAL

BAL

10-11

2
4
CLE

CLE

12-10

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
20,783 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CLE no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 58.6%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BAL 2 · CLE 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0001000102
CLE000030014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 99
    12
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    181
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    221
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    237
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    182
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1/VegasCLE -143

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Baltimore Orioles, 4–2.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Leody Taveras

Leody Taveras

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Bo Naylor

Bo Naylor

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL10-11
2
4
CLE12-10
BAL10-11·CLE12-10
BAL

BAL

10-11

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44121102
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000004
SPRINT25.29
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT29.194
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-44000004
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33111111
SPRINT2993
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000000
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000001
Team4-32322422116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
6.0233271
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
2.0111011
Team8.0344282
CLE

CLE

12-10

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44000000
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22000010
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33000002
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
0-33000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-22100011
SPRINT24.96
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33110002
SPRINT27.457
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-33111101
SPRINT27.354
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33113100
SPRINT27.354
Team3-2727434228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
7.03111111
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0111021
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000030
Team9.04221162

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    95 pitches·34% CSW
    • FS
      47%·82.6 mph·48% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Suarez
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      36%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      3%·81.0 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    100 pitches·41% CSW
    • ST
      37%·86.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      27%·83.5 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·92.4 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      63%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      73%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.9 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

3

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4today
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Apr 16BALBAL2@CLECLE4
Apr 17BALBAL6@CLECLE4
Apr 18BALBAL2@CLECLE4today
Apr 19BALBAL4@CLECLE8
Sep 7CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 8CLECLE@BALBALupcoming
Sep 9CLECLE@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+11946%
CLECLE-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 39pp · Bottom 5th Inning

BALBAL
L. Taveras

L. Taveras

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
B. Naylor

B. Naylor

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat BAL 4-2. Rocchio's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Win probability

CLE vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 56% WP

Taveras · homered to right (399 feet).

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+39pp→ 81% WP

Rocchio · homered to right (357 feet), Hoskins scored and Schneemann scored.

BALTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+10pp→ 19% WP

Henderson · homered to right (368 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0001000102
CLE00003001—4

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Taveras 1

0
3

Inn 5

Rocchio 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Henderson 1

Naylor 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
CLE

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  2. T9

    Taveras struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  9. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Leody Taveras

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  10. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  11. T9

    Cowser struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  16. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Colton Cowser

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  17. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  18. T9

    Beavers struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

    +4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  24. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dylan Beavers

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  25. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  28. B8

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  29. B8

    DeLauter flied out to left.

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 4

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

4

4

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

11

TB

9

2

HR

2

1

BB

2

16

K

8

9

LOB

3

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·BAL +119/CLE -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872