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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

3-5

3
2
BOS

BOS

2-6

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,405 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BOS no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL61.2%53.2%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 55.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 3 · BOS 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0110000013
BOS0100000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Apr 4·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -149

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD3-5
3
2
BOS2-6
SD3-5·BOS2-6
SD

SD

3-5

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55110004
SPRINT28.483
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44011010
SPRINT2872
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
3-55130001
SPRINT26.530
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-11000030
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-33111011
SPRINT26.838
T. FranceT. France★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-44000000
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-33001001
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-11000001
Team7-3434373059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
6.0611130
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000000
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0211020
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
Team9.0822180
BOS

BOS

2-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.457
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000001
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-33010011
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33010000
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-33001002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000000
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-33120001
SPRINT28.790
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-11001000
SPRINT2744
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-11000001
Team8-3232282018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
4.0322440
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.1100110
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.2000010
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0100010
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0000010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0211010
Team9.0733590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • R. Vasquez
    83 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.2 mph·71% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      45%·92.0 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      38%·99.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Miller
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • SL
      64%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      18%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·101.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      80%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·80.2 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • C. Early
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      28%·82.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Watson
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      31%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      31%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Slaten
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FC
      63%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      59%·96.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      12%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • ST
      44%·82.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      22%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      50%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      25%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 3SDSD2@BOSBOS5
Apr 4SDSD3@BOSBOS2today
Apr 5SDSD8@BOSBOS6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 3SDSD2@BOSBOS5
Apr 4SDSD3@BOSBOS2today
Apr 5SDSD8@BOSBOS6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+12345%
BOSBOS-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 9th Inning

SDSD
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
C. Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SD beat BOS 3-2. Laureano's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 51% WP

Fermin · doubled to left, Andujar scored, Machado to third.

BOSBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+23pp→ 65% WP

Anthony · singled to right, Rafaela to third.

SDTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+37pp→ 84% WP

Laureano · singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored on error, Laureano to second, Laureano safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Anthony.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0110000013
BOS0100000102

Period scoring

SD won 2 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Johnson 1

Mayer 1

1
0

Inn 3

Fermin 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Monasterio 1

1
0

Inn 9

Laureano 1

SD
BOS

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 3·BOS 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Mayer struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  9. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  10. B9

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Yoshida struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  16. B9

    Yoshida hit for Durbin

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  17. B9

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  18. B9

    Abreu struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

    −9pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  22. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Miller relieved Morejon

    ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  24. B9

    Merrill in center field.

    SD 3·BOS 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 3·BOS 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 3·BOS 2

  27. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  28. T9

    Andujar flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

    +3pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

  30. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Miguel Andujar

    · ·

    SD 3·BOS 2

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

10

TB

10

0

HR

0

5

BB

1

9

K

8

17

LOB

12

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·SD +123/BOS -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BOS vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    56.2%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    230
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    293
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 96
    73
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872