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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3KC
KC

KC

15-19

4
1
SEA

SEA

16-19

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
39,408 attended

Line movement

87 snapshots

SEA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

SEA no-vig %

51.1%

open 54.2% · -3.2

+2.0-2.0SEA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL58.2%46.4%SEA NO-VIG %MODEL 55.5%May 2, 5 PMMay 26, 11 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · SEA 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0003010004
SEA0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.15

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 99
    73
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 27, 26sim 96
    303
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 27, 26sim 95
    25
    14(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 95
    301
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    242
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesKC wins series 3-0/VegasSEA -115

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 4–1.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC15-19
4
1
SEA16-19
KC15-19·SEA16-19
KC

KC

15-19

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55010000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55110003
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-55120001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33100000
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22001021
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33101010
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-22022010
SPRINT27.867
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-44000002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT26.941
Team8-3232484057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BubicK. Bubic★SP
7.0411270
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2000100
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.1000030
Team9.04113100
SEA

SEA

16-19

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-33000002
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44010003
SPRINT27.662
C. JoeC. Joe★RF
0-22000011
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
0-33000001
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-22100010
SPRINT27.560
Team4-30301410310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
6.0644250
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP
1.0100010
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
1.0000200
N. DavilaN. DavilaRP
1.0100110
Team9.0844570

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • K. Bubic
    94 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.2 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      22%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    17 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      47%·87.3 mph·80% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      6%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • L. Castillo
    101 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      65%·95.4 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Wilcox
    20 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      35%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hoppe
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      28%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Davila
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 3-0

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC3@SEASEA2
May 3KCKC4@SEASEA1today

Season series

KC leads series 3-0

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC3@SEASEA2
May 3KCKC4@SEASEA1today
May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-10551%
SEASEA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 87 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 4th Inning

KCKC
I. Collins

I. Collins

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

K. Bubic

K. Bubic

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat SEA 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 67% WP

Jensen · walked, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second, Pasquantino to third.

KCTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 85% WP

Collins · doubled to center, Caglianone scored.

KCBottom 6th Inning · 4-1
+10pp→ 88% WP

Arozarena · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Naylor out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0003010004
SEA0010000001

Period scoring

KC won 2 · SEA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Naylor 1

3
0

Inn 4

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

KC
SEA

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 4·SEA 1

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  3. B9

    Young struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  8. B9

    Daniel Lynch IV pitches to Cole Young

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  9. B9

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  10. B9

    Crawford grounded out to first.

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  13. B9

    Daniel Lynch IV pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  14. B9

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  15. B9

    Arozarena struck out looking.

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

    −2pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  23. B9

    Daniel Lynch IV pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 4·SEA 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 4·SEA 1

  26. T9

    ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  27. T9

    Pasquantino singled to center, Isbel thrown out at home.

    · ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 4·SEA 1

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

9

TB

4

0

HR

0

5

BB

3

7

K

10

18

LOB

11

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7.5·KC -105/SEA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SEA vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.8± 2.4high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.8%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688