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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIL
PIT

PIT

16-12

0
5
MIL

MIL

14-13

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
31,500 attended

Line movement

39 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL56.2%48.2%MIL NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 29, 11 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

PIT 0 · MIL 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000000000
MIL000500005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 10, 26sim 99
    242
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 97
    246
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 97
    242
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 97
    236
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -120

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 5–0.

MIL +1.5 cashed (PIT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brandon Lockridge

Brandon Lockridge

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT16-12
0
5
MIL14-13
PIT16-12·MIL14-13
PIT

PIT

16-12

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-44000003
SPRINT2993
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-22000021
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.614
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.735
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-33000002
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-22000012
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-33000002
B. CookB. Cook★RF
0-33000002
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-11000001
Team2-29290200418
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
3.2554140
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.1100020
C. SandersC. SandersRP
2.0100110
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000000
Team8.0754270
MIL

MIL

14-13

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44000002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110000
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
1-44011000
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-33000001
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-33100001
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-33111010
SPRINT27.148
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33111001
SPRINT29.294
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-22012011
SPRINT29.294
Team7-3030575027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
6.01001120
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100120
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000220
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000020
Team9.02004180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • C. Mlodzinski
    81 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      28%·85.3 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.6 mph·15% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Sanders
    32 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.9 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      39%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·80.0 mph·80% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.4 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    101 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.8 mph·34% whiff
    • SV
      28%·81.1 mph·53% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      32%·84.1 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      11%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Megill
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      50%·88.1 mph·75% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      69%·98.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

7

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5today

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Apr 24PITPIT6@MILMIL0
Apr 25PITPIT6@MILMIL3
Apr 26PITPIT0@MILMIL5today
Jul 10MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 11MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Jul 12MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Aug 3PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 4PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 5PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Aug 6PITPIT@MILMILupcoming
Sep 15MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 16MILMIL@PITPITupcoming
Sep 17MILMIL@PITPITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+10050%
MILMIL-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

PITPIT
N. Gonzales

N. Gonzales

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

C. Mlodzinski

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
B. Lockridge

B. Lockridge

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 12 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat PIT 5-0.

Win probability

MIL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 59% WP

O'Hearn · grounded into double play, to first, Ozuna out at second.

MILBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 76% WP

Bauers · hit a ground rule double, Contreras to third.

MILBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 82% WP

Rengifo · singled to center, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000000000
MIL00050000—5

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · MIL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Lockridge 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
MIL

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  2. T9

    Horwitz struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  7. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  8. T9

    Horwitz hit for Yorke

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  9. T9

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  10. T9

    O'Hearn lined out to second.

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  16. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  17. T9

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  18. T9

    Ozuna struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  23. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  24. T9

    Uribe relieved Ashby

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  25. T9

    Ortiz at shortstop.

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  28. B8

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  29. B8

    Hamilton grounded out to second.

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 0·MIL 5

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

0

Runs

5

2

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

3

TB

10

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

18

K

7

16

LOB

10

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT +100/MIL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Konnor GriffinPIT · SS
    SPRINT29.899
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790

Player projections

MIL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.