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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8CHC
NYM

NYM

7-13

4
12
CHC

CHC

10-9

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
34,282 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

CHC no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%CHC NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

NYM 4 · CHC 12 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0300000104
CHC4201003212

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-150

Close price

-150

Open no-vig

57.3%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0/VegasCHC -150

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off New York Mets, 12–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Moises Ballesteros

Moises Ballesteros

DH

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM7-13
4
12
CHC10-9
NYM7-13·CHC10-9
NYM

NYM

7-13

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-44010001
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55010001
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44010000
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-33121010
SPRINT25.716
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
2-33120011
SPRINT26.941
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-44121001
SPRINT28.175
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-22000001
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
2-33022001
SPRINT28.891
T. PhamT. PhamLF
0-11000000
M. VientosM. Vientos1B
1-22010000
Team14-35354144026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
3.1676332
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2200010
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
4.0655121
Team8.0141211463
CHC

CHC

10-9

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55132100
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-44220011
SPRINT25.716
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-55110001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44112111
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-55221001
SPRINT27.457
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-22123100
SPRINT24.53
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44110000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000011
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-22211010
M. ShawM. ShawRF
1-33111001
Team14-3737121410346
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
6.0833240
R. MartinR. MartinRP
1.0100010
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0411010
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0100000
Team9.01444260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    72 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      60%·89.8 mph·5% whiff
    • ST
      32%·73.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      8%·80.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Senga
    65 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      38%·89.5 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • FO
      25%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      47%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      47%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.7 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      34%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·92.7 mph·32% whiff
    • CU
      21%·83.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Webb
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      36%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Martin
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      75%·94.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·90.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

14

4

Runs

12

2

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

Apr 17NYMNYM4@CHCCHC12today
Apr 18NYMNYM2@CHCCHC4
Apr 19NYMNYM1@CHCCHC2

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Apr 17NYMNYM4@CHCCHC12today
Apr 18NYMNYM2@CHCCHC4
Apr 19NYMNYM1@CHCCHC2
Jun 22CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 23CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 24CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming
Jun 25CHCCHC@NYMNYMupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM+12445%
CHCCHC-15060%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
M. Ballesteros

M. Ballesteros

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat NYM 12-4.

Win probability

CHC vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 92% WP

Ballesteros · homered to left (365 feet), Bregman scored and Suzuki scored.

NYMTop 2nd Inning · 1-4
+9pp→ 22% WP

Semien · doubled to left, Alvarez scored, Melendez to third.

CHCBottom 2nd Inning · 3-6
+11pp→ 89% WP

Hoerner · homered to left (392 feet), Swanson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0300000104
CHC42010032—12

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · CHC won 4

0
4

Inn 1

Ballesteros 3

3
2

Inn 2

Taylor 2

Hoerner 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Swanson 2

1
2

Inn 8

Alvarez 1

Happ 2

0

Inn 9

NYM
CHC

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  2. T9

    Bichette grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Taylor out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  8. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  9. T9

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  10. T9

    Pham lined out to right.

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  13. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Tommy Pham

    · ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  14. T9

    Pham hit for Benge

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  15. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  16. T9

    Taylor singled to right.

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  20. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  21. T9

    Milner relieved Webb

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  24. B8

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  25. B8

    Shaw flied out to left.

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·CHC 12

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

12

14

Hits

14

2

Errors

0

17

TB

25

0

HR

3

2

BB

4

6

K

6

17

LOB

17

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 10·NYM +124/CHC -150

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    185
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 92
    48
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 92
    74
    10(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 91
    39
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.5± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.