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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIN
MIN

MIN

9-7

8
2
TOR

TOR

6-9

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
37,804 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%TOR NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 8 · TOR 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0350000008
TOR1000001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 1, 26sim 97
    48
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    189
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    74
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -136

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN9-7
8
2
TOR6-9
MIN9-7·TOR6-9
MIN

MIN

9-7

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-55111102
SPRINT27.457
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-55110002
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT28.688
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-22200021
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33211001
SPRINT2622
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-33011001
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-33113100
SPRINT26.428
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44012001
SPRINT26.428
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-44000002
Team8-33338882212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
5.0511470
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
3.0611020
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0100000
Team9.01222490
TOR

TOR

6-9

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
3-55230000
SPRINT27.354
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
3-55031000
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-33010020
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT25.818
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000011
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-44000001
E. JimenezE. Jimenez★DH
2-44020002
SPRINT2622
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT27.560
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-33000012
Team12-36362122049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
2.1588232
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
1.2200010
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0000020
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000030
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100000
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.08882122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Bradley
    106 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FS
      21%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.0 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Morris
    67 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      25%·96.7 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      24%·81.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      75%·93.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.8 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    68 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.1 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·75.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      43%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·80.9 mph·25% whiff
  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      25%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FC
      62%·91.7 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      38%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      25%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Nance
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • CU
      75%·85.5 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      71%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·72.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

12

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2today

Season series

MIN leads series 2-1

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2today
Apr 30TORTOR1@MINMIN7
May 2TORTOR7@MINMIN3
May 2TORTOR11@MINMIN4
May 3TORTOR3@MINMIN4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+11347%
TORTOR-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 2nd Inning

MINMIN
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 2 R · 1.200 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 8-2. Gray's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 39% WP

Sánchez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Guerrero Jr. out at second, Varsho to third.

MINTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+26pp→ 71% WP

Gray · homered to right (396 feet), Bell scored and Wallner scored.

MINTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+9pp→ 81% WP

Clemens · homered to right center (417 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0350000008
TOR1000001002

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · TOR won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Varsho 1

3
0

Inn 2

Gray 3

5
0

Inn 3

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
TOR

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  3. B9

    Okamoto grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Sánchez out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  12. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Kazuma Okamoto

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  13. B9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  14. B9

    Sánchez singled to left.

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  16. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  17. B9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  18. B9

    Guerrero Jr. grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  22. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  23. B9

    Topa relieved Morris

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  24. B9

    Martin in left field.

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  27. T9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  28. T9

    Larnach struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

8

Runs

2

8

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

15

TB

15

2

HR

0

2

BB

4

12

K

9

9

LOB

23

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 8·MIN +113/TOR -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 16 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    62.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.