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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CLE
HOU

HOU

9-16

5
8
CLE

CLE

14-11

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
15,448 attended

Line movement

31 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CLE no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 62.1%May 3, 7 PMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

HOU 5 · CLE 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000301015
CLE110000068

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -156

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Houston Astros, 8–5.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Brice Matthews

Brice Matthews

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Angel Martinez

Angel Martinez

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU9-16
5
8
CLE14-11
HOU9-16·CLE14-11
HOU

HOU

9-16

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44021011
SPRINT27.251
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-55023000
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-55000002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000000
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT25.18
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.395
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44110000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
2-33121001
SPRINT28.278
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
0-11100000
Team10-33335105035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeissR. Weiss★RP
3.1522441
CC. GordonSP
1.0200010
K. TengK. TengRP
2.2000120
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.1233100
B. KingB. KingRP
0.2233200
Team8.01188871
CLE

CLE

14-11

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33110020
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44113010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33210020
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
2-44022010
SPRINT25.411
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
1-55011001
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-22110021
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-44221102
SPRINT27.765
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-22010001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44111001
SPRINT27.354
B. NaylorB. NaylorC
0-22000001
Team11-33338118187
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
5.0633140
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0000000
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
0.1110000
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2100000
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0000100
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0211110
Team9.01054350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • R. Weiss
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      34%·83.7 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      2%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Teng
    31 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      35%·84.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Gordon
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      35%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
  • B. King
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      53%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • P. Messick
    85 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.9 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.2 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      33%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      22%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      75%·80.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      45%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

5

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8today
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8today
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 21CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+12944%
CLECLE-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 8th Inning

HOUHOU
B. Matthews

B. Matthews

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

R. Weiss

R. Weiss

RP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

CLECLE
A. Martinez

A. Martinez

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat HOU 8-5. DeLauter's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

CLE vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+25pp→ 61% WP

Alvarez · singled to left, Diaz scored and Harris scored, Alvarez out stretching at second, Correa to third.

HOUBottom 7th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 84% WP

Manzardo · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Ramírez out at second.

CLEBottom 8th Inning · 4-6
+38pp→ 97% WP

DeLauter · tripled to left, Martínez scored, Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000301015
CLE11000006—8

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · CLE won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Valera 1

0
1

Inn 2

Mart 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Alvarez 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Correa 1

0
6

Inn 8

DeLauter 3

1

Inn 9

Alvarez 1

HOU
CLE

Play-by-play · 620 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  2. T9

    Altuve struck out looking.

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  11. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jose Altuve

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  12. T9

    ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  13. T9

    Alvarez doubled to left, Matthews scored.

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

    −1pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  16. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    · ·

    HOU 5·CLE 8

  17. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  18. T9

    Correa grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, D. Johnson out at second, Matthews to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

    +7pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  21. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  22. T9

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  23. T9

    D. Johnson walked.

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

    −4pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  28. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Daniel Johnson

    · ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  29. T9

    ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

  30. T9

    Matthews doubled to center.

    ·

    HOU 4·CLE 8

    −2pp

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

5

Runs

8

10

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

13

TB

16

0

HR

1

3

BB

8

5

K

7

16

LOB

19

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +129/CLE -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    214
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    48
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    14
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 94
    189
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CLE vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.0%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.