
LAA
8-8

CIN
9-7
Line movement
14 snapshots
CIN spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
CIN no-vig %
48.9%
open 48.9%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAA wins
LAA 9 · CIN 6 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CIN +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Angels went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 9–6.
LAA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAA · top performer

Nolan Schanuel
1B
3-2
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
CIN · top performer

Dane Myers
CF
1-1
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


LAA
8-8
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.867 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.278 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 10-35 | 35 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 7.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
CIN
9-7
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.530 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| Team | 6-33 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 3.0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantLAA
CIN
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
Hits
6
9
Runs
6
2
Errors
3
Current series
LAA win series 2-1
Season series
LAA win series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAA -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 14 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning
N. Schanuel
1BBatter of the game
2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS
J. Soriano
SPStarting pitcherGem
7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB
D. Myers
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
A. Abbott
SPStarting pitcher
3.0 IP · 1 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
How it ended
LAA beat CIN 9-6. Schanuel's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CIN vs LAA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSchanuel · singled to left, Adell scored and Trout scored, Grissom to third.
Trout · doubled to left, Neto scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Period scoring
LAA won 4 · CIN won 2
Inn 1
Schanuel 2
Inn 2
Trout 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Peraza 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Peraza 1
Inn 8
Schanuel 1
Lowe 2
Inn 9
Cruz 3
Play-by-play · 660 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAA 9·CIN 6
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Stewart struck out swinging.
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
−0.5pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Drew Pomeranz pitches to Sal Stewart
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
·
LAA 9·CIN 6
De La Cruz homered to center (405 feet), Myers scored and Friedl scored.
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Drew Pomeranz pitches to Elly De La Cruz
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 6
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
McLain lined into double play, to third, Marte doubled off third.
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
−4pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Drew Pomeranz pitches to Matt McLain
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Pomeranz relieved Sandlin
·
LAA 9·CIN 3
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Friedl hit by pitch, Myers to second, Marte to third.
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
+3pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Nick Sandlin pitches to TJ Friedl
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Myers singled to center, Marte to second.
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
+1pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 9·CIN 3
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
CIN
Home
9
Runs
6
10
Hits
6
2
Errors
3
15
TB
9
1
HR
1
9
BB
6
3
K
12
23
LOB
14
Betting line
LAA -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAA -115/CIN -105
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 73 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.8%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
60.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.9%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.11 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.