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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6TOR
MIN

MIN

7-7

4
10
TOR

TOR

6-7

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
40,721 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

TOR spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

TOR no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

-1.0-2.0TOR SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL62.3%54.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 8 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIN 4 · TOR 10 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN3001000004
TOR0005121110

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -156

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Minnesota Twins, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Brandon Valenzuela

Brandon Valenzuela

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN7-7
4
10
TOR6-7
MIN7-7·TOR6-7
MIN

MIN

7-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-55000003
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-44120011
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.688
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
3-33133100
SPRINT26.326
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-22000011
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-44000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33111102
SPRINT26.428
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000002
Team7-32324742212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
4.0655121
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.2333111
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.1311010
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0211000
Team8.0141010242
TOR

TOR

6-7

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44011010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-55121101
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
3-55231000
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44111001
K. OkamotoK. Okamoto★3B
0-44000000
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
2-33222011
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33111000
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
2-44222101
SPRINT24.64
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
Team14-3737101410224
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
4.0644132
T. NanceT. NanceRP
0.2100010
J. MantiplyJ. MantiplyRP
1.0000030
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.1000110
B. FisherB. FisherRP
2.0000040
Team9.07442122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    68 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      40%·85.1 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      34%·91.9 mph·7% whiff
    • FS
      22%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·75.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    36 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      44%·83.6 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    30 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      50%·78.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      30%·91.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Topa
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      58%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.7 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • P. Corbin
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      33%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·79.1 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·80.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      2%·65.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    32 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      50%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      25%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      35%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      26%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Mantiply
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      47%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      40%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      50%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

14

4

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10today
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10today
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2
Apr 30TORTOR1@MINMIN7
May 2TORTOR7@MINMIN3
May 2TORTOR11@MINMIN4
May 3TORTOR3@MINMIN4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+12944%
TORTOR-15661%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
B. Valenzuela

B. Valenzuela

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIN 10-4. Valenzuela's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+25pp→ 76% WP

Jeffers · homered to left center (419 feet), Martin scored and Keaschall scored.

TORBottom 4th Inning · 4-5
+27pp→ 65% WP

Valenzuela · homered to right (383 feet), Giménez scored.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 4-6
+11pp→ 82% WP

Varsho · homered to right center (405 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN3001000004
TOR00051211—10

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

10

7

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

14

TB

27

2

HR

2

2

BB

2

12

K

4

15

LOB

14

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 9·MIN +129/TOR -156

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · TOR won 5

3
0

Inn 1

Jeffers 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
5

Inn 4

Lee 1

Valenzuela 2

0
1

Inn 5

Varsho 1

0
2

Inn 6

Clement 1

0
1

Inn 7

Schneider 1

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
TOR

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  2. T9

    Martin struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  9. T9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Austin Martin

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  10. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  11. T9

    Buxton struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  17. T9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Byron Buxton

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  18. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  19. T9

    Gray grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  22. T9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Tristan Gray

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  25. B8

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  26. B8

    Straw grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  29. B8

    Justin Topa pitches to Myles Straw

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  30. B8

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 95
    185
    5(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    214
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.4%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688