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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
DET

DET

10-10

0
1
BOS

BOS

8-11

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
34,866 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

BOS no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 55.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 27, 8 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

DET 0 · BOS 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
DET00000000000
BOS00000000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasBOS -131

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

DET +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
DET10-10
0
1
BOS8-11
DET10-10·BOS8-11
DET

DET

10-10

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.18
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000012
SPRINT27.765
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
0-33000000
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000000
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
0-33000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
R. GreeneR. GreeneLF
0-11000000
Team4-3232040026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.2300170
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000100
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.1000000
W. VestW. VestRP
1.1110120
Team9.1410390
BOS

BOS

8-11

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-33000001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000002
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000002
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000011
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
0-33000011
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.175
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-22010010
SPRINT27.354
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-11011000
SPRINT26.123
Team4-3131141039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
8.0200140
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0200110
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000010
Team10.0400260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Mize
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.0 mph·45% whiff
    • FS
      33%·87.2 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.1 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      1%·81.7 mph·— whiff
  • W. Vest
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      30%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.3 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      28%·91.0 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      27%·82.0 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·76.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      70%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1today
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1today
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8
May 4BOSBOS5@DETDET4
May 5BOSBOS10@DETDET3
May 6BOSBOS4@DETDET0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10948%
BOSBOS-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 10th Inning

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat DET 1-0. Yoshida's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 9th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 56% WP

Báez singled to right.

BOSTop 10th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 70% WP

Pérez struck out swinging.

BOSBottom 10th Inning · 0-1
+19pp→ 100% WP

Yoshida · singled to right, Duran scored, Mayer to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
DET00000000000
BOS00000000011

Period scoring

DET won 0 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Yoshida 1

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 1

  2. B10

    Yoshida singled to right, Duran scored, Mayer to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 1

    +19pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 1

  4. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  5. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  6. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  7. B10

    Will Vest pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 1

  8. B10

    Yoshida hit for Durbin

    ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  9. B10

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  10. B10

    Mayer walked.

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

    −2pp

  11. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  12. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  13. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  14. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  15. B10

    Will Vest pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  16. B10

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  17. B10

    Rafaela struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

    +13pp

  18. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  19. B10

    Duran to third on wild pitch by Vest.

    ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  20. B10

    Duran to third on wild pitch by Vest.

    ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  21. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  22. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  23. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  24. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  25. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  26. B10

    Will Vest pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

  27. B10

    Greene in left field.

    DET 0·BOS 0

  28. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    DET 0·BOS 0

  29. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    DET 0·BOS 0

  30. T10

    · ·

    DET 0·BOS 0

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

0

Runs

1

4

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

5

TB

6

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

6

K

9

8

LOB

10

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8·DET +109/BOS -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    232
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    172
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 94
    74
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    20
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    64
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 94
    301
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.1high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.