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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7LAA
LAA

LAA

10-10

11
4
NYY

NYY

10-9

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
38,424 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

NYY no-vig %

72.2%

open 72.2%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL76.2%68.2%NYY NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 11 · NYY 4 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA20000414011
NYY1020010004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+244

Close price

+244

Open no-vig

27.8%

Close no-vig

27.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -308

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into New York Yankees and beat them, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAA +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 10.0 OVER by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jose Caballero

Jose Caballero

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA10-10
11
4
NYY10-9
LAA10-10·NYY10-9
LAA

LAA

10-10

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-55110002
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-22311130
SPRINT28.688
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44324111
SPRINT27.867
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
2-44223111
SPRINT28.278
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
1-44111010
SPRINT26.632
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-55000001
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-44010010
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-55012000
SPRINT27.251
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0-11100001
Team9-363611911377
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SuterB. Suter★RP
2.0311221
N. SandlinN. SandlinRP
1.1122111
S. AldegheriS. AldegheriSP
1.2211121
S. BachmanS. BachmanRP
3.0100020
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0100010
Team9.0844483
NYY

NYY

10-9

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000010
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44112100
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.941
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22000020
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
3-44030001
SPRINT28.278
J.C. EscarraJ.C. Escarra★C
1-44010003
Team8-3232484348
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
5.1355331
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2211120
A. ChivilliA. ChivilliRP
0.2111221
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
2.1344101
Team9.091111773

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • B. Suter
    49 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      41%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·75.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·76.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Aldegheri
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      36%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      27%·80.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      6%·74.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bachman
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      78%·89.7 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      11%·92.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·98.6 mph·— whiff
  • N. Sandlin
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      42%·76.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Silseth
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FS
      47%·88.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      41%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.7 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    93 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      31%·92.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    38 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      26%·78.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·72.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      5%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chivilli
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      50%·89.5 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      35%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·98.7 mph·— whiff
  • F. Cruz
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      64%·80.2 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·89.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

11

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4today

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4today
Sep 1NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 2NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 3NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+24429%
NYYNYY-30875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 6th Inning

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

S. Bachman

S. Bachman

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H

NYYNYY
J. Caballero

J. Caballero

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat NYY 11-4. Lowe's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+22pp→ 76% WP

Stanton · homered to center (446 feet), Bellinger scored.

LAATop 6th Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 55% WP

Peraza · doubled to right, Trout scored, Adell to third.

LAATop 6th Inning · 6-3
+22pp→ 83% WP

Lowe · singled to center, Grissom scored and Peraza scored, d'Arnaud to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA20000414011
NYY1020010004

Period scoring

LAA won 4 · NYY won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Peraza 2

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
1

Inn 6

Lowe 2

Rice 1

1
0

Inn 7

Trout 1

4
0

Inn 8

Adell 4

0
0

Inn 9

LAA
NYY

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  3. B9

    Escarra struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  10. B9

    Chase Silseth pitches to J.C. Escarra

    · ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  11. B9

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  12. B9

    Caballero singled to right.

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  17. B9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Jose Caballero

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  18. B9

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  19. B9

    Chisholm Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  24. B9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  25. B9

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  26. B9

    Rosario lined out to right.

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

  30. B9

    Chase Silseth pitches to Amed Rosario

    ·

    LAA 11·NYY 4

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

11

Runs

4

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

19

TB

17

3

HR

3

7

BB

4

7

K

8

8

LOB

7

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 10·LAA +244/NYY -308

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    2013
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 93
    310
    10(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 93
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 92
    34
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYY vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    64.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175