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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
LAA

LAA

9-10

4
5
NYY

NYY

10-8

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
41,019 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

NYY no-vig %

62.8%

open 62.8%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL66.8%58.8%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 66.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

LAA 4 · NYY 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0010300004
NYY1200000025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -192

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Los Angeles Angels, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (NYY won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 11.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA9-10
4
5
NYY10-8
LAA9-10·NYY10-8
LAA

LAA

9-10

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-22110010
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.920
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-44000001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-33000010
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44010002
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44111101
SPRINT27.251
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33111101
SPRINT26.225
Team7-3232474327
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. KochanowiczJ. Kochanowicz★SP
6.2433461
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.1000000
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.1222100
Team8.1655561
NYY

NYY

10-8

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-33012000
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000000
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33010010
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000003
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33210012
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-22110020
SPRINT25.18
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-33112010
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
Team6-3030565156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
5.0544253
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0000000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0100000
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0100000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000020
Team9.0744273

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • J. Kochanowicz
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      30%·96.5 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Romano
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      57%·85.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·88.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      27%·85.9 mph·50% whiff

NYY

  • L. Gil
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      34%·90.4 mph·45% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.2 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Headrick
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      63%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·78.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      38%·77.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5today
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4

Season series

NYY lead series 2-1

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5today
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4
Sep 1NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 2NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 3NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+15739%
NYYNYY-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 68pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Kochanowicz

J. Kochanowicz

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat LAA 5-4. Caballero's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (68pp).

Win probability

NYY vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 87% WP

Grisham · singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Caballero scored.

LAATop 5th Inning · 4-3
+22pp→ 52% WP

Trout · homered to right center (383 feet), Neto scored.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+68pp→ 100% WP

Caballero · doubled to center, Wells scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0010300004
NYY1200000025

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · NYY won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Judge 1

0
2

Inn 2

Grisham 2

1
0

Inn 3

Frazier 1

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Trout 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Caballero 2

LAA
NYY

Play-by-play · 510 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 5

  2. B9

    Caballero doubled to center, Wells scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 5

    +68pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  8. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Jose Caballero

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 5

  9. B9

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  10. B9

    Wells walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

    +10pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  15. B9

    Chisholm Jr. stole second.

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  16. B9

    Chisholm Jr. stole second.

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  19. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  20. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  21. B9

    Chisholm Jr. reached on infield single to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

    +9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  26. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  27. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  28. B9

    Stanton lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

    −10pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 4·NYY 3

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

17

TB

11

3

HR

1

2

BB

5

7

K

6

6

LOB

11

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 11·LAA +157/NYY -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    63.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.4%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 95
    37
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    189
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    70
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 93
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 93
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs