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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12MIL
CHW

CHW

0-1

2
14
MIL

MIL

1-0

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
43,001 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL67.6%59.6%MIL NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHW 2 · MIL 14 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1000000012
MIL0402233014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-199

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Mar 26·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -199

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago White Sox, 14–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Chase Meidroth

Chase Meidroth

2B

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

RF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW0-1
2
14
MIL1-0
CHW0-1·MIL1-0
CHW

CHW

0-1

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-22111121
SPRINT2744
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000003
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33000013
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-22000002
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
M. MurakamiM. Murakami★1B
1-22111120
SPRINT27.148
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-33000003
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000002
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.597
L. SosaL. Sosa2B
0-22000001
T. PetersT. PetersCF
0-11000001
R. McGuireR. McGuireC
0-11000001
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000001
Team4-31312422520
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
1.2343220
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.1322110
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.0222101
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.2233400
J. PaezJ. PaezSP
1.1233201
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000000
Team8.01214131032
MIL

MIL

1-0

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-44020011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33113020
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-44221010
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-44011000
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-55223102
SPRINT2744
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33212120
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-22211020
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-11101020
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-33222000
SPRINT28.790
B. LockridgeB. LockridgeLF
0-11200000
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-11000000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-22000000
Team12-33331412142103
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
5.02113111
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000020
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0000010
D. HallD. HallRP
1.0100230
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0111031
Team9.04225202

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    54 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Paez
    36 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·91.9 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    34 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      79%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      39%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SV
      27%·82.7 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      22%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·87.5 mph·33% whiff

MIL

  • J. Misiorowski
    94 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      65%·98.3 mph·62% whiff
    • SL
      17%·94.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      15%·86.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      3%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      30%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      31%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • CU
      45%·82.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      45%·97.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • ST
      43%·80.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

12

2

Runs

14

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14today
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Mar 26CHWCHW2@MILMIL14today
Mar 28CHWCHW1@MILMIL6
Mar 29CHWCHW7@MILMIL9

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHWCHW+16338%
MILMIL-19967%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHWCHW
C. Meidroth

C. Meidroth

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

S. Newcomb

S. Newcomb

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
S. Frelick

S. Frelick

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHW 14-2.

Win probability

MIL vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 1-0
+6pp→ 69% WP

Turang · doubled to center.

MILBottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+17pp→ 90% WP

Contreras · doubled to left, Hamilton scored, Ortiz scored and Mitchell scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1000000012
MIL04022330—14

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · MIL won 5

1
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Contreras 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Ortiz 1

0
2

Inn 5

Frelick 2

0
3

Inn 6

Vaughn 1

0
3

Inn 7

Bauers 3

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Murakami 1

CHW
MIL

Play-by-play · 648 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  2. T9

    Hill struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  7. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Derek Hill

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  8. T9

    Hill hit for Acuña

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  9. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  10. T9

    McGuire struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  14. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Reese McGuire

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  15. T9

    McGuire hit for Quero

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  16. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  17. T9

    Peters struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  24. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Tristan Peters

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  25. T9

    Peters hit for Pereira

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  26. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  27. T9

    Murakami homered to right (384 feet).

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·MIL 14

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 14

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·MIL 14

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

14

4

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

10

TB

20

2

HR

2

5

BB

10

20

K

3

16

LOB

18

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHW +163/MIL -199

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    2013
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 96
    47
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    311
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 91
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    65.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    69.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.4%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.