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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
LAA

LAA

8-9

10
11
NYY

NYY

9-7

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
35,789 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

NYY no-vig %

61.6%

open 61.6%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL65.6%57.6%NYY NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

LAA 10 · NYY 11 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA00040312010
NYY22003100311

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYY -181

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Los Angeles Angels, 11–10. It came down to the final possession.

LAA +1.5 cashed (NYY won by 1). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

3

R

5

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

3.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA8-9
10
11
NYY9-7
LAA8-9·NYY9-7
LAA

LAA

8-9

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44111013
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-55325200
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-55000000
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
2-55121002
SPRINT2622
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-55120002
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121000
SPRINT27.867
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-33101010
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44011000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-33220011
SPRINT26.225
Team12-3838101210238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
3.1444432
S. AndersonS. AndersonRP
2.1444112
M. FarrisM. FarrisRP
1.1200010
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0100020
Team8.0141111775
NYY

NYY

9-7

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-22110011
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-55223201
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-55010000
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44120012
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-22010000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-55110002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-11100010
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-55222100
SPRINT28.278
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33010020
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-22000010
B. RiceB. Rice1B
1-22110011
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
2-33225200
SPRINT26.735
Team14-3939111410577
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
3.2340160
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.1000200
T. HillT. HillRP
1.2311000
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
1.0433011
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.1222011
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.0000000
Team9.012106382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • Y. Kikuchi
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      32%·85.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.8 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      23%·84.6 mph·30% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Anderson
    49 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.3 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Farris
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·81.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Romano
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.6 mph·40% whiff
    • KC
      33%·86.2 mph·33% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    89 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      28%·85.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bird
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      52%·85.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      28%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      42%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.4 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      52%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      39%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      33%·92.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

14

10

Runs

11

1

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11today
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Apr 13LAALAA10@NYYNYY11today
Apr 14LAALAA7@NYYNYY1
Apr 15LAALAA4@NYYNYY5
Apr 16LAALAA11@NYYNYY4
Sep 1NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 2NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming
Sep 3NYYNYY@LAALAAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LAALAA+14940%
NYYNYY-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 48pp · Bottom 9th Inning

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat LAA 11-10. Grisham's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (48pp).

Win probability

NYY vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 6th Inning · 7-7
+26pp→ 36% WP

Trout · homered to left center (421 feet), Frazier scored and Neto scored.

LAATop 8th Inning · 10-8
+36pp→ 82% WP

Trout · homered to left center (445 feet), Frazier scored.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 10-10
+48pp→ 66% WP

Grisham · homered to right center (391 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA00040312010
NYY22003100311

Period scoring

LAA won 4 · NYY won 4

0
2

Inn 1

Judge 2

0
2

Inn 2

Caballero 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Soler 1

0
3

Inn 5

Grisham 3

3
1

Inn 6

Trout 3

Judge 1

1
0

Inn 7

Lowe 1

2
0

Inn 8

Trout 2

0
3

Inn 9

Grisham 2

LAA
NYY

Play-by-play · 717 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 11

  2. B9

    McMahon walked, Caballero scored, Wells to third on Romano wild pitch.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 11

    +6pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 11

  4. B9

    Wells to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  5. B9

    Wells to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  6. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  7. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  14. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Ryan McMahon

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 11

  15. B9

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  16. B9

    Wells walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

    +12pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  20. B9

    Caballero stole third.

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  21. B9

    Caballero stole third.

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  25. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  26. B9

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  27. B9

    Caballero doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

    +16pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

  30. B9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Jose Caballero

    ·

    LAA 10·NYY 10

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

10

Runs

11

12

Hits

14

1

Errors

1

20

TB

32

2

HR

5

3

BB

7

8

K

7

10

LOB

17

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 9.5·LAA +149/NYY -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-181

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

61.6%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 93
    311
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 89
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 89
    74
    10(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 29, 26sim 89
    47
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 88
    37
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 88
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYY vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    64.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.6%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.4%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175