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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11WSH
WSH

WSH

3-1

13
2
PHI

PHI

1-3

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
35,609 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PHI no-vig %

61.1%

open 61.1%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL65.1%57.1%PHI NO-VIG %May 4, 11 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 13 · PHI 2 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH41200200413
PHI0000200002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    64.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-177

Close price

-177

Open no-vig

61.1%

Close no-vig

61.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 97
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 95
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    311
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 93
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -177

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 13–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jorbit Vivas

Jorbit Vivas

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Rafael Marchan

Rafael Marchan

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH3-1
13
2
PHI1-3
WSH3-1·PHI1-3
WSH

WSH

3-1

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44211022
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-66123000
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-66121002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-66222000
SPRINT29.395
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-66121000
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-44011011
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
3-55232001
SPRINT27.662
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
2-33221010
SPRINT26.838
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
2-44220010
Team17-4444131712056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. GriffinF. Griffin★SP
5.0522051
B. LordB. LordRP
3.0100130
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0100110
Team9.0722291
PHI

PHI

1-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55010002
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000012
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-55000001
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.735
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-44010002
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.175
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
1-33112100
SPRINT26.225
Team7-3535272129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
4.21076320
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.1322010
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
2.0000020
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.1344210
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0.2100000
Team9.0171312560

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • F. Griffin
    86 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      34%·88.8 mph·5% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      9%·81.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Lord
    51 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·84.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      39%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    99 pitches·20% CSW
    • FS
      26%·86.0 mph·19% whiff
    • FC
      20%·86.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·73.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      34%·91.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      3%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      43%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Moore
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • EP
      71%·36.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      29%·72.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

7

13

Runs

2

1

Errors

2

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2today
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2today
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6
Jun 22PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 23PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 24PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 25PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 3WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 4WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 5WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 6WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 15PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 16PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+14641%
PHIPHI-17764%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

WSHWSH
J. Vivas

J. Vivas

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

F. Griffin

F. Griffin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H

PHIPHI
R. Marchan

R. Marchan

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 13-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 52% WP

Garc · ía Jr. doubled to left, Wood to third.

WSHTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 73% WP

Tena · singled to center, Lile scored, Millas to second, Abrams to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH41200200413
PHI0000200002

Period scoring

WSH won 5 · PHI won 1

4
0

Inn 1

Lile 1

1
0

Inn 2

Millas 1

2
0

Inn 3

Garc 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

March 2

2
0

Inn 6

Tena 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

4
0

Inn 9

Garc 2

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 656 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  3. B9

    Harper flied out to right.

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  5. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Bryce Harper

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  6. B9

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  7. B9

    Schwarber walked.

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  9. B9

    Marsh to second on wild pitch by Henry.

    ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  10. B9

    Marsh to second on wild pitch by Henry.

    ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  16. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  18. B9

    Turner struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  26. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  27. B9

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  28. B9

    Marchán popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

  30. B9

    Cole Henry pitches to Rafael Marchan

    · ·

    WSH 13·PHI 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

13

Runs

2

17

Hits

7

1

Errors

2

20

TB

12

0

HR

1

5

BB

2

6

K

9

27

LOB

20

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 9·WSH +146/PHI -177

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175