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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2WSH
WSH

WSH

7-8

8
6
MIL

MIL

8-7

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
26,924 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

65.7%

open 65.7%

-1.0-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL69.7%61.7%MIL NO-VIG %MODEL 67.4%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 8 · MIL 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0002004208
MIL0011103006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -219

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 8–6.

WSH +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jose Tena

Jose Tena

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH7-8
8
6
MIL8-7
WSH7-8·MIL8-7
WSH

WSH

7-8

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33211121
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33100000
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-55011002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-55020000
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-44121001
SPRINT28.483
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-55220000
SPRINT29.496
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33010000
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-22000001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44000002
C. MeadC. Mead1B
1-22111000
SPRINT26.838
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
1-11111000
SPRINT27.662
K. RuizK. RuizC
1-11012000
Team12-38388127127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
5.0633033
K. WaldichukK. WaldichukRP
1.2111110
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.1100000
G. VarlandG. VarlandRP
1.0000010
Team9.0966254
MIL

MIL

8-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-44332210
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44110011
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-22000000
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT29.798
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44121100
SPRINT2744
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000000
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
1-44010001
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000001
G. SanchezG. SanchezDH
1-22113100
SPRINT24.12
L. RengifoL. Rengifo3B
0-11000000
Team9-3636696425
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
6.0321161
A. UribeA. UribeRP
0.2222000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.2444100
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.2100010
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0200000
Team9.01287271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    71 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      28%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·83.4 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      15%·79.5 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Waldichuk
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • CU
      44%·81.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·79.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Varland
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.1 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    70 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.8 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      76%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      61%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      39%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      38%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      36%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

8

Runs

6

0

Errors

2

Current series

WSH wins series 3-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6today

Season series

WSH leads series 3-0

Apr 10WSHWSH7@MILMIL3
Apr 11WSHWSH3@MILMIL1
Apr 12WSHWSH8@MILMIL6today
May 1MILMIL6@WSHWSH1
May 2MILMIL4@WSHWSH1
May 3MILMIL2@WSHWSH3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+17936%
MILMIL-21969%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 7th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Tena

J. Tena

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIL 8-6. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 7th inning (47pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 7th Inning · 6-3
+26pp→ 84% WP

House · singled to right, Mead scored.

MILBottom 7th Inning · 6-6
+47pp→ 64% WP

Sánchez homered to left center (400 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 8-6
+26pp→ 83% WP

Ruiz · singled to center, Abrams scored and Young scored, Ruiz to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0002004208
MIL0011103006

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

8

Runs

6

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

2

17

TB

21

1

HR

4

2

BB

2

7

K

5

13

LOB

8

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +179/MIL -219

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

MIL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · MIL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Turang 1

2
1

Inn 4

Wood 1

Bauers 1

0
1

Inn 5

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
3

Inn 7

House 2

2
0

Inn 8

Ruiz 2

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
MIL

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  3. B9

    Contreras fouled out to right.

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  6. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to William Contreras

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  7. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  8. B9

    Turang grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

    −4pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  11. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  12. B9

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  13. B9

    Ortiz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

    −5pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  18. B9

    Gus Varland pitches to Joey Ortiz

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  19. B9

    Varland relieved Poulin

    ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  22. T9

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  23. T9

    Young flied out to center.

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

    +2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  26. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  27. T9

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  28. T9

    Abrams reached on infield single to first, Lile to second.

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

    −0.7pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 8·MIL 6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 30, 26sim 97
    2013
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 96
    42
    8(H)14
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 26, 26sim 94
    2010
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    311
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    64.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.3%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands