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FINAL+1LAD
MIA

MIA

13-16

4
5
LAD

LAD

20-9

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
49,918 attended

Line movement

37 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

70.9%

open 70.9%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL74.9%66.9%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 70.2%May 3, 7 PMMay 25, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

MIA 4 · LAD 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0001300004
LAD2000000035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+229

Close price

+229

Open no-vig

29.1%

Close no-vig

29.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 17, 26sim 97
    283
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    21
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    134
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    12
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    212
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 93
    11
    10(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Apr 27·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -286

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Miami Marlins, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA13-16
4
5
LAD20-9
MIA13-16·LAD20-9
MIA

MIA

13-16

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-33120021
SPRINT27.765
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-55000001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44110003
SPRINT28.381
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-11100030
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44113102
SPRINT25.614
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
0-44000003
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000001
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33010010
Team6-32324631611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
4.0422110
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0000000
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1000120
A. NardiA. NardiRP
0.2200110
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
0.1133300
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
0.1100010
Team8.2855660
LAD

LAD

20-9

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
3-55231001
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33110020
SPRINT24.74
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-55000001
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55012001
SPRINT26.123
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-22012021
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33100010
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000000
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-22000000
A. CallA. CallLF
1-11010000
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-22000001
Team8-3434585066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
5.0543441
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000130
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000130
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0000010
J. EderJ. EderRP
1.0100000
Team9.06436111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • T. Phillips
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      44%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.1 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • T. Scott
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      69%·88.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5today
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 28MIAMIA4@LADLAD5today
Apr 29MIAMIA2@LADLAD1
Apr 29MIAMIA3@LADLAD2
Sep 11LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 12LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming
Sep 13LADLAD@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+22930%
LADLAD-28674%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 37 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 71pp · Bottom 9th Inning

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat MIA 5-4. Tucker's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (71pp).

Win probability

LAD vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 5th Inning · 4-2
+35pp→ 56% WP

Hicks · homered to right (348 feet), Marsee scored and Edwards scored.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+35pp→ 55% WP

Ohtani · hit a ground rule double, Pages scored, Rushing to third.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 4-5
+71pp→ 100% WP

Tucker · singled to center, Ohtani scored and Rushing scored, Freeman to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0001300004
LAD2000000035

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · LAD won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Lopez 1

3
0

Inn 5

Hicks 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Tucker 2

MIA
LAD

Play-by-play · 589 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 5

  2. B9

    Tucker singled to center, Ohtani scored and Rushing scored, Freeman to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 5

    +71pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  5. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Kyle Tucker

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 5

  6. B9

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  7. B9

    Smith struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

    −27pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  12. B9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  13. B9

    Phillips relieved Fairbanks

    ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  14. B9

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  15. B9

    Freeman intentionally walked.

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

    +1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  20. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  21. B9

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  22. B9

    Ohtani hit a ground rule double, Pages scored, Rushing to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

    +35pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

  28. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 3

  29. B9

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

  30. B9

    Rojas fouled out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 4·LAD 2

    −12pp

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

4

Runs

5

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

11

TB

9

1

HR

0

6

BB

6

11

K

6

18

LOB

19

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIA +229/LAD -286

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAD vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    66.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    71.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175