
ATH
6-7

NYM
7-7
Line movement
5 snapshots
NYM spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
NYM no-vig %
57.3%
open 57.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATH wins
ATH 4 · NYM 0 (by 4)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked NYM +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
thletics went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–0.
ATH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 4.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
ATH · top performer

Jacob Wilson
SS
4-3
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
NYM · top performer

Francisco Alvarez
C
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


ATH
6-7
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.920 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.969 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| Team | 9-34 | 34 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
NYM
7-7
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2993 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 6-32 | 32 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantATH
NYM
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
6
4
Runs
0
0
Errors
1
Current series
ATH wins series 3-0
Season series
ATH leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning
J. Wilson
SSBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS
J.T. Ginn
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB
F. Alvarez
CBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS
C. Holmes
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB
How it ended
ATH beat NYM 4-0.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
NYM vs ATH
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLangeliers · singled to right, Cortes scored, Kurtz to second.
Young · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bichette to second, Lindor out at third.
Bichette · struck out swinging.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
ATH won 2 · NYM won 0
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Langeliers 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Clarke 2
Play-by-play · 516 plays
End of the 9th inning
ATH 4·NYM 0
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Semien flied out to left.
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Elvis Alvarado pitches to Marcus Semien
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Baty flied out to right.
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
−1pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 1
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Elvis Alvarado pitches to Brett Baty
· ·
ATH 4·NYM 0
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Robert Jr. singled to center.
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
+1pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Elvis Alvarado pitches to Luis Robert Jr.
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Young struck out looking.
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
−1pp
Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
ATH 4·NYM 0
Team stats
ATH
Away
Stat
NYM
Home
4
Runs
0
9
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
11
TB
6
0
HR
0
3
BB
1
4
K
10
16
LOB
13
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +124/NYM -149
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
121
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.8%
ensemble · NYM favored
Elo Static
52.6%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.70 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+124
Close price
+124
Open no-vig
42.7%
Close no-vig
42.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit