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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4ATH
ATH

ATH

6-7

4
0
NYM

NYM

7-7

Citi Field · Queens, New York
36,349 attended

Line movement

5 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYM no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%NYM NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 4 · NYM 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0010000034
NYM0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0/VegasNYM -149

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–0.

ATH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Jacob Wilson

Jacob Wilson

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH6-7
4
0
NYM7-7
ATH6-7·NYM7-7
ATH

ATH

6-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-44000010
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-22000021
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44011000
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000000
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
3-44130000
SPRINT27.148
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.920
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT27.969
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-44110000
D. ClarkeD. Clarke★CF
1-44012001
SPRINT28.586
Team9-3434494034
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
4.0100140
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100010
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
2.1300030
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.2000010
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0100010
Team9.06001100
NYM

NYM

7-7

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.716
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000002
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-33000002
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-22010011
SPRINT25.716
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-33010001
Team6-32320600110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.1511330
T. MyersT. MyersRP
3.0433010
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
0.2000000
Team9.0944340

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    68 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      31%·94.8 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      28%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Perkins
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      37%·86.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      80%·98.1 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·74.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      38%·76.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      38%·89.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.3 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    81 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      33%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      28%·81.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      8%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      80%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·80.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Apr 10ATHATH4@NYMNYM0today
Apr 11ATHATH11@NYMNYM6
Apr 12ATHATH1@NYMNYM0

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

Apr 10ATHATH4@NYMNYM0today
Apr 11ATHATH11@NYMNYM6
Apr 12ATHATH1@NYMNYM0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+12445%
NYMNYM-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATHATH
J. Wilson

J. Wilson

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat NYM 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 49% WP

Langeliers · singled to right, Cortes scored, Kurtz to second.

ATHBottom 6th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 45% WP

Young · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bichette to second, Lindor out at third.

ATHBottom 8th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 78% WP

Bichette · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0010000034
NYM0000000000

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · NYM won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Langeliers 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Clarke 2

ATH
NYM

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  3. B9

    Semien flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  6. B9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  7. B9

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  8. B9

    Baty flied out to right.

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

    −1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  14. B9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  15. B9

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  16. B9

    Robert Jr. singled to center.

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

    +1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  21. B9

    Elvis Alvarado pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  22. B9

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  23. B9

    Young struck out looking.

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

    −1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 4·NYM 0

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

4

Runs

0

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

11

TB

6

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

4

K

10

16

LOB

13

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 8·ATH +124/NYM -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYM vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.8± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.6± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    241
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    131
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    301
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit