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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CLE
CLE

CLE

10-7

9
3
STL

STL

8-8

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
17,901 attended

Line movement

14 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

47.4%

open 47.4%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL51.4%43.4%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 9 · STL 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE1003020309
STL1000010103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -122

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Masyn Winn

Masyn Winn

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE10-7
9
3
STL8-8
CLE10-7·STL8-8
CLE

CLE

10-7

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-55022000
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-55121100
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44120010
SPRINT27.251
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-44100011
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-44210011
SPRINT25.716
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-55012003
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
1-44110001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22101010
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33222110
SPRINT27.354
Team11-36369118256
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
5.0522241
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0100110
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000000
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0211110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100000
Team9.0933461
STL

STL

8-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-55010000
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-55021000
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-55221101
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44010003
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-11010030
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-22000000
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33011000
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000000
J. FerminJ. FerminLF
0-11000010
T. SaggeseT. SaggeseLF
0-22000001
Team9-3535393146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
5.0644321
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0122111
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.1010110
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.2420020
Team9.01196562

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    93 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      34%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.9 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      29%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      62%·89.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·78.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      22%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.4 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    105 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.9 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      45%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      35%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Apr 13CLECLE9@STLSTL3today
Apr 14CLECLE5@STLSTL6
Apr 15CLECLE3@STLSTL5

Season series

CLE leads series 1-0

Apr 13CLECLE9@STLSTL3today
Apr 14CLECLE5@STLSTL6
Apr 15CLECLE3@STLSTL5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE-12255%
STLSTL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 4th Inning

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
M. Winn

M. Winn

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CLE beat STL 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Mart · ínez homered to left (398 feet).

CLETop 4th Inning · 3-1
+15pp→ 81% WP

Schneemann · singled to right, Hoskins scored and Ramírez scored, Fry to third.

CLETop 6th Inning · 6-1
+9pp→ 95% WP

Rocchio · homered to left (402 feet), Hedges scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE1003020309
STL1000010103

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

STL

Home

9

Runs

3

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

18

TB

14

2

HR

1

5

BB

4

6

K

6

15

LOB

20

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 8·CLE -122/STL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

STL vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · STL won 0

1
1

Inn 1

Mart 1

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Schneemann 2

0
0

Inn 5

2
1

Inn 6

Rocchio 2

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
1

Inn 8

Kwan 2

Pag 1

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
STL

Play-by-play · 639 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 9·STL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  3. B9

    Walker flied out to right.

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  7. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Jordan Walker

    · ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  8. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  9. B9

    Burleson doubled to right.

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  17. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Alec Burleson

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  18. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  19. B9

    Herrera grounded out to third.

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  22. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Ivan Herrera

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  23. B9

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  24. B9

    Wetherholt grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 9·STL 3

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

STL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    45.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.9%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    55
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    53
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    226
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    29
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    87
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 92
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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