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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TB
CHC

CHC

4-6

4
6
TB

TB

5-5

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
25,114 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

-1.0-2.0TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%TB NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CHC 4 · TB 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0200010014
TB031000206

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasTB -126

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Chicago Cubs, 6–4.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Cedric Mullins

Cedric Mullins

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC4-6
4
6
TB5-5
CHC4-6·TB5-5
CHC

CHC

4-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44012001
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT27.662
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-22101010
SPRINT25.716
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33100013
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT28.992
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-00000010
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
0-11000000
D. CarlsonD. CarlsonLF
0-11000000
Team4-3030444149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
6.0743042
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0122111
R. MartinR. MartinRP
1.0100000
Team8.0965153
TB

TB

5-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.29
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-44000000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.716
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT29.496
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44010001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33112100
SPRINT27.662
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-22100011
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33110000
Team9-3232695315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. McClanahanS. McClanahan★SP
4.0122450
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.1211010
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
1.2000000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0111021
Team9.0444491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      34%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      18%·83.6 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      12%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      2%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • P. Maton
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      37%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      26%·74.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      16%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Martin
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • S. McClanahan
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.5 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Seymour
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      38%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      14%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Bigge
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      5%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      29%·78.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      29%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

4

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6today
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6today
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+10449%
TBTB-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H

TBTB
C. Mullins

C. Mullins

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. McClanahan

S. McClanahan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

How it ended

TB beat CHC 6-4.

Win probability

TB vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 76% WP

Hoerner · singled to left, Busch and Swanson scored, Amaya to second.

TBBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+17pp→ 46% WP

Mullins · homered to right (367 feet), Simpson scored.

TBBottom 7th Inning · 3-6
+17pp→ 94% WP

Aranda · homered to right center (403 feet), Williamson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0200010014
TB03100020—6

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · TB won 3

0
0

Inn 1

2
3

Inn 2

Hoerner 2

Mullins 2

0
1

Inn 3

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Busch 1

0
2

Inn 7

Aranda 2

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Shaw 1

CHC
TB

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  2. T9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  6. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  7. T9

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  8. T9

    Shaw homered to left (366 feet).

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

    −0.5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  11. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Matt Shaw

    ·

    CHC 4·TB 6

  12. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  13. T9

    Swanson struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

    +0.9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  21. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  22. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  23. T9

    Busch grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

    +1pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  26. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Michael Busch

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  27. T9

    Baker relieved Bigge

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·TB 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 3·TB 6

  30. B8

    ·

    CHC 3·TB 6

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TB

Home

4

Runs

6

4

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

9

TB

20

1

HR

3

4

BB

1

9

K

5

9

LOB

9

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 8·CHC +104/TB -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Matt ShawCHC · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TB vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    48.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    29
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    227
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs