• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2PHI
PHI

PHI

6-4

6
4
SF

SF

3-8

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
32,898 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SF no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL51.8%43.8%SF NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 6 · SF 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000204006
SF0031000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 98
    55
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 95
    59
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    53
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    250
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    220
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    220
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -120

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 6–4.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI6-4
6
4
SF3-8
PHI6-4·SF3-8
PHI

PHI

6-4

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55111001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33100023
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
3-44133010
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-55021001
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-55000000
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000010
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44011001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-33120010
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
2-33220011
SPRINT29.798
Team11-35356116067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PainterA. Painter★SP
4.0944110
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000010
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0000020
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0100020
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100000
Team9.01144170
SF

SF

3-8

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44120010
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44122001
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000001
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44011003
SPRINT27.251
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44010000
J. EncarnacionJ. Encarnacion★RF
1-44010001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.662
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010000
Team11-36364114017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
6.0944230
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.1222100
C. KilianC. KilianRP
0.2000110
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0000110
B. TidwellB. TidwellRP
1.0000120
Team9.01166670

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

11

6

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4today
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4today
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-12055%
SFSF+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SF 6-4. Bohm's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 88% WP

Chapman · tripled to center, Adames scored and Arraez scored.

PHITop 5th Inning · 2-4
+11pp→ 30% WP

Harper · doubled to right, Crawford scored, Schwarber to third.

PHITop 7th Inning · 5-4
+20pp→ 82% WP

Bohm · doubled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000204006
SF0031000004

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · SF won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Chapman 2

0
1

Inn 4

Arraez 1

2
0

Inn 5

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Harper 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
SF

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 6·SF 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  3. B9

    Arraez grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  6. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  7. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  8. B9

    Adames doubled to right.

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

    +3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  12. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  13. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  14. B9

    Bailey flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  22. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Patrick Bailey

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  23. B9

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  24. B9

    Bader fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

    −4pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  29. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Harrison Bader

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

  30. B9

    Duran relieved Keller

    ·

    PHI 6·SF 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

6

Runs

4

11

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

15

TB

15

0

HR

0

6

BB

1

7

K

7

22

LOB

12

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·PHI -120/SF +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SF vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    44.6%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175