MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

CLE

10-9

STL

10-8

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

22,642 attended

Line movement

17 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
45.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.3%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

STL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.6high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.7± 1.8high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
0.6± 1.0low

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.2low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

STL

.689

OPS

.717

▶

.723

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.62

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CLE 3 · STL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3
STL	0	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.205	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.180	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Brito2B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SchneemannCF	.295	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.158	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.302	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.205	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		31	3	8	3	0	2	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.239

.259

.205

.180

.333

.222

.295

.158

.211

.302

.205

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. CecconiSP	4.0	3	1	1	5	4	87
C. BrogdonRP	1.1	2	3	3	1	0	18
T. HerrinRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	8
M. FestaRP	2.1	3	1	1	0	3	36
Team	8.0	9	5	5	7	7	149

Player

4.0

1.1

0.1

2.1

Team

8.0

149

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt2B	.227	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
I. HerreraDH	.194	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
A. Burleson1B	.279	5	0	2	2	0	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.319	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.188	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.205	4	2	3	1	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.206	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.255	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
R. Urias3B	.212	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	9	5	0	7	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. MaySP	6.0	6	1	1	1	4	91
J. BruihlRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	24
J. RomeroRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
Team	9.0	8	3	3	2	8	147

Team

CLE

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

STL vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

STL vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.