
CLE
10-8

STL
9-8
Line movement
10 snapshots
STL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
STL no-vig %
45.8%
open 45.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
STL wins
CLE 5 · STL 6 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CLE +6pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
t. Louis Cardinals held off Cleveland Guardians, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.
STL +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CLE · top performer

Daniel Schneemann
CF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
STL · top performer

JJ Wetherholt
2B
4-2
AB-H
2
R
3
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


CLE
10-8
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.411 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9-38 | 38 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.1 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
STL
9-8
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.560 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8-32 | 32 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 10.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCLE
STL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
8
5
Runs
6
1
Errors
0
Current series
STL wins series 2-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 51pp · Bottom 9th Inning
D. Schneemann
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS
J. Cantillo
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
J. Wetherholt
2BBatter of the game2-HR game
2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS
M. McGreevy
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
How it ended
STL beat CLE 6-5. Pozo's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).
Win probability
STL vs CLE
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactValera · doubled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.
Pozo · doubled to right, Winn scored.
Church · hit sacrifice fly to right, Saggese scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
Period scoring
CLE won 2 · STL won 3
Inn 1
Ram 1
Herrera 1
Inn 2
Schneemann 1
Inn 3
Wetherholt 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Mart 2
Wetherholt 2
Inn 9
Pozo 1
Inn 10
Church 1
Play-by-play · 616 plays
·
CLE 5·STL 6
Church hit sacrifice fly to right, Saggese scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
CLE 5·STL 6
+31pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
CLE 5·STL 6
Saggese to third on wild pitch by Herrin.
·
CLE 5·STL 5
Saggese to third on wild pitch by Herrin.
·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Tim Herrin pitches to Nathan Church
·
CLE 5·STL 6
Herrin relieved Smith
·
CLE 5·STL 5
Bottom of the 10th inning
CLE 5·STL 5
Middle of the 10th inning
CLE 5·STL 5
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Brito grounded out to first.
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
−1pp
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
DeLauter to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.
·
CLE 5·STL 5
DeLauter to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.
·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Riley O'Brien pitches to Juan Brito
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Manzardo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
+11pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 4 : Ball 3
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
CLE 5·STL 5
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
STL
Home
5
Runs
6
9
Hits
8
1
Errors
0
18
TB
18
2
HR
3
3
BB
3
6
K
8
15
LOB
11
Betting line
CLE -1.5·O/U 9·CLE -131/STL +109
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
119
projections · 81 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.7%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
44.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.