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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIL
MIL

MIL

11-8

7
5
MIA

MIA

9-11

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
11,103 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0MIA SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%MIA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 7 · MIA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
MIL00030100037
MIA00010201015

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -115

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 7–5.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
MIL11-8
7
5
MIA9-11
MIL11-8·MIA9-11
MIL

MIL

11-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-66010000
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-55010000
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-44100012
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-22100031
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
3-44330011
SPRINT2744
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44121000
SPRINT27.148
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
2-44023012
SPRINT29.798
G. JonesG. Jones★LF
0-55001002
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-55000002
Team9-39397950610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CrowC. Crow★SP
5.1422140
D. HallD. HallRP
0.2111011
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0000100
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0211110
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000210
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0110020
Team10.0854591
MIA

MIA

9-11

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44100010
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44220010
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55011002
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-55010000
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
3-55232102
SPRINT28.381
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22011001
SPRINT28.586
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-44000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000010
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-22000001
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000001
Team8-3535584159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
5.1643230
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.1000020
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.1100330
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0231110
Team10.09746100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • C. Crow
    77 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      30%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·74.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.6 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Uribe
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Megill
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.4 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      44%·88.2 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      63%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • J. Junk
    93 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.7 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    42 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      31%·87.6 mph·70% whiff
    • SI
      29%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      36%·86.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      29%·84.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·94.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

2

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5today
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Apr 17MILMIL7@MIAMIA5today
Apr 18MILMIL5@MIAMIA2
Apr 19MILMIL3@MIAMIA5
Jul 17MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 18MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming
Jul 19MIAMIA@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-10551%
MIAMIA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 3 R · 1.550 OPS

C. Crow

C. Crow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat MIA 7-5. Ram's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

MIA vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 6th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 32% WP

Lopez · homered to center (401 feet), Edwards scored.

MIABottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+33pp→ 64% WP

Ram · írez doubled to left, Edwards scored.

MILTop 10th Inning · 5-4
+16pp→ 82% WP

Rengifo · grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turang scored on error by catcher Ramírez, Bauers to second, Ortiz to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
MIL00030100037
MIA00010201015

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
1

Inn 4

Mitchell 1

Caissie 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Rengifo 1

Lopez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 9

3
1

Inn 10

Mitchell 2

Hicks 1

MIL
MIA

Play-by-play · 687 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  2. B10

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  3. B10

    Lopez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

    −5pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  9. B10

    Trevor Megill pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  10. B10

    ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  11. B10

    Hicks doubled to right.

    ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

    +3pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  13. B10

    Marsee scored on Megill wild pitch.

    ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  14. B10

    Marsee scored on Megill wild pitch.

    ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  15. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  16. B10

    Trevor Megill pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 5

  17. B10

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  18. B10

    Ramírez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

    −4pp

  19. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  20. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  21. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  22. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  23. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  24. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  25. B10

    Trevor Megill pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  26. B10

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  27. B10

    Edwards flied out to center, Marsee to third.

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

    −4pp

  28. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  29. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

  30. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·MIA 4

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

7

Runs

5

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

12

TB

16

0

HR

1

6

BB

5

10

K

9

23

LOB

12

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·MIL -105/MIA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Joey OrtizMIL · SS
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.5%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    25
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 94
    59
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    258
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    163
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 94
    308
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    84
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs