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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6BOS
BOS

BOS

6-9

9
3
STL

STL

8-7

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
25,122 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL52.3%44.3%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 9 · STL 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS2104000029
STL0100010103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 97
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    29
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    297
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -118

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS6-9
9
3
STL8-7
BOS6-9·STL8-7
BOS

BOS

6-9

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-55001000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33200010
SPRINT28.175
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44213012
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
4-55143100
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44100011
T. StoryT. Story★SS
4-55142000
SPRINT27.969
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-55010000
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33100001
Team11-38389119134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
6.2622221
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.1000000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
2.0111021
Team9.0733242
STL

STL

8-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-44000000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-44121100
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33001002
SPRINT257
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33000010
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33010000
Team7-3232373224
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
5.0976121
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0000010
J. ShusterJ. ShusterRP
3.0222210
Team9.01198341

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      52%·94.4 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.3 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      6%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      1%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      48%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      9%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      80%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.2 mph·— whiff

STL

  • A. Pallante
    95 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      19%·76.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FS
      1%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Shuster
    50 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      38%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·86.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3today

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-11854%
STLSTL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat STL 9-3. Contreras's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 61% WP

Contreras · homered to center (411 feet), Durbin scored.

STLBottom 2nd Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 37% WP

Walker · homered to left center (432 feet).

BOSTop 4th Inning · 6-1
+14pp→ 92% WP

Duran · doubled to center, Durbin scored, Wong scored and Rafaela scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS2104000029
STL0100010103

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · STL won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Contreras 2

1
1

Inn 2

Anthony 1

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Duran 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Burleson 1

2
0

Inn 9

Story 2

BOS
STL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 9·STL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  3. B9

    Saggese struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  9. B9

    Zack Kelly pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  10. B9

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  11. B9

    Fermín grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  13. B9

    Zack Kelly pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  15. B9

    Urías flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  19. B9

    Zack Kelly pitches to Ramon Urias

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 9·STL 3

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 9·STL 3

  22. T9

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  23. T9

    Mayer flied out to center.

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  26. T9

    Jared Shuster pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  27. T9

    ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  28. T9

    Story doubled to right, Abreu scored and Duran scored.

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

    −1pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

  30. T9

    Abreu to second on wild pitch by Shuster, Duran to third on wild pitch by Shuster.

    · ·

    BOS 9·STL 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

STL

Home

9

Runs

3

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

16

TB

13

1

HR

2

3

BB

2

4

K

4

22

LOB

9

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 9·BOS -118/STL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.9%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.