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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

8-7

5
2
LAD

LAD

11-4

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
48,530 attended

Line movement

6 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

56.2%

open 56.2%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.2%52.2%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · LAD 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0020010205
LAD1000001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.2%

Close no-vig

56.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -143

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 5–2.

TEX +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Evan Carter

Evan Carter

CF

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX8-7
5
2
LAD11-4
TEX8-7·LAD11-4
TEX

TEX

8-7

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55022000
SPRINT28.278
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33111120
SPRINT28.175
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000011
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-55010004
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-44110012
SPRINT25.716
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-22000031
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-55021001
SPRINT27.354
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-33220021
SPRINT25.920
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33110011
Team10-3434510411011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
6.0411391
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
0.2211100
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.1000110
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000120
Team9.06226121
LAD

LAD

11-4

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33111121
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55011002
SPRINT26.123
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000003
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000011
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44110002
SPRINT27.867
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33010011
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-22000001
Team6-32322621612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SasakiR. Sasaki★SP
4.0522561
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0110200
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000000
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0222210
W. KleinW. KleinRP
2.0200140
Team9.0105410111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    93 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.2 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      33%·91.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.0 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      2%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      5%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      32%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      21%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Latz
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.4 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • R. Sasaki
    94 pitches·29% CSW
    • FO
      35%·85.1 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      34%·96.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.7 mph·42% whiff
  • W. Klein
    37 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      16%·88.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.8 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Casparius
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.0 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      27%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.3 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    17 pitches·6% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·100.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·99.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      40%·92.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2today

Season series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+11846%
LADLAD-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 7th Inning

TEXTEX
E. Carter

E. Carter

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

R. Sasaki

R. Sasaki

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 5 BB

How it ended

TEX beat LAD 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 55% WP

Smith · singled to right, Pederson scored, Jansen to second.

LADBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 43% WP

Tucker · singled to right, Rushing scored, Rojas to third.

TEXTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+12pp→ 92% WP

Nimmo · singled to center, Jung scored, Duran to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0020010205
LAD1000001002

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · LAD won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Carter 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Nimmo 1

0
1

Inn 7

Tucker 1

2
0

Inn 8

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
LAD

Play-by-play · 636 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Tucker flied out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  9. B9

    Smith to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Smith to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Kyle Tucker

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  13. B9

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Ohtani struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

    −4pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  19. B9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  20. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  21. B9

    Smith walked.

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

    +3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  26. B9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  27. B9

    Smith hit for Rojas

    · ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  28. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

  29. B9

    Call struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

    −2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·LAD 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

14

TB

10

1

HR

1

10

BB

6

11

K

12

28

LOB

19

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +118/LAD -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.8± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    64.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.9%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    133
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 93
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    240
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 93
    136
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 91
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 91
    284
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs