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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAD
TEX

TEX

7-7

3
6
LAD

LAD

11-3

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,617 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL66.2%58.2%LAD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 8 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

TEX 3 · LAD 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX1000020003
LAD401000016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    135
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 92
    284
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 92
    137
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 92
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 92
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 92
    240
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -186

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Texas Rangers, 6–3.

LAD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX7-7
3
6
LAD11-3
TEX7-7·LAD11-3
TEX

TEX

7-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44233200
SPRINT28.278
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT28.891
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-33000011
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22000002
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-22000011
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000002
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-22000000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT25.920
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-22000002
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000001
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11000000
Team4-31313432211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
3.2555442
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
2.1200120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000100
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0211020
Team8.0966682
LAD

LAD

11-3

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44121102
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000001
W. SmithW. Smith★C
2-22220020
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000011
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44223100
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-33011011
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33010011
Team9-3030695268
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
6.0433162
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000030
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000000
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2000110
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000010
Team9.04332112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • J. Dreyer
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      40%·92.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6today
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2

Season series

LAD lead series 2-0

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6today
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+15340%
LADLAD-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TEX 6-3. T. Hern's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

LAD vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 72% WP

Ohtani · homered to right (390 feet).

LADBottom 1st Inning · 1-4
+18pp→ 89% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left center (393 feet), Smith scored and Freeman scored.

TEXTop 6th Inning · 3-5
+7pp→ 15% WP

Nimmo · homered to right center (396 feet), Jung scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX1000020003
LAD40100001—6

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · LAD won 3

1
4

Inn 1

Hern 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Nimmo 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Pages 1

0

Inn 9

TEX
LAD

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  2. T9

    Jansen struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  9. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Danny Jansen

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  10. T9

    Vesia relieved Treinen

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  11. T9

    Jansen hit for Carter

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  12. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  13. T9

    McCutchen struck out looking.

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

    +4pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  20. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  21. T9

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  22. T9

    Burger safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Muncy, Seager to second.

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

    −4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  26. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Jake Burger

    · ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  27. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  28. T9

    Seager walked.

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

    −2pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·LAD 6

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

6

4

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

11

TB

16

2

HR

2

2

BB

6

11

K

8

8

LOB

14

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8·TEX +153/LAD -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAD vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.8± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    64.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175