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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

8-7

7
4
TOR

TOR

6-8

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,591 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TOR no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.3%

+2.0+1.0TOR SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL57.3%49.3%TOR NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 7 · TOR 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0070000007
TOR2000000024

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.3%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasTOR -126

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 7–4.

MIN -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN8-7
7
4
TOR6-8
MIN8-7·TOR6-8
MIN

MIN

8-7

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55110001
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-22110021
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-33100010
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33101010
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44112001
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000011
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33113110
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44121100
SPRINT26.428
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
0-44000001
Team6-3131767265
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
7.0222151
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0100100
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0222001
Team9.0544252
TOR

TOR

6-8

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-11100010
SPRINT25.920
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44112100
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.123
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-44112100
SPRINT25.818
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-44000002
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000000
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22000011
B. ValenzuelaB. Valenzuela★C
0-33000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-22000000
Team5-3131454225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
5.1577532
S. MilesS. MilesRP
3.2100120
Team9.0677652

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.6 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.9 mph·30% whiff
    • KC
      11%·77.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      27%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      53%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    95 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      32%·89.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      24%·82.3 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.1 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      9%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Miles
    43 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      30%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.3 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

7

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4today
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 10MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Apr 11MINMIN7@TORTOR4today
Apr 12MINMIN8@TORTOR2
Apr 30TORTOR1@MINMIN7
May 2TORTOR7@MINMIN3
May 2TORTOR11@MINMIN4
May 3TORTOR3@MINMIN4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+10549%
TORTOR-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 3rd Inning

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 5 BB

How it ended

MIN beat TOR 7-4. Larnach's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 74% WP

Varsho · homered to right center (382 feet), Springer scored.

MINTop 3rd Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 38% WP

Lee · homered to left (349 feet).

MINTop 3rd Inning · 7-2
+18pp→ 91% WP

Larnach · homered to right (398 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0070000007
TOR2000000024

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · TOR won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Varsho 2

0
0

Inn 2

7
0

Inn 3

Larnach 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

MIN
TOR

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  3. B9

    Clement grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  6. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  7. B9

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  8. B9

    Lukes lined out to first.

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

    −1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  16. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  17. B9

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  18. B9

    Schneider grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

    −2pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  23. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Davis Schneider

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  24. B9

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  25. B9

    Sánchez homered to right center (406 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

    +2pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 7·TOR 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 7·TOR 2

  29. B9

    Cole Sands pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    · ·

    MIN 7·TOR 4

  30. B9

    ·

    MIN 7·TOR 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

7

Runs

4

6

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

12

TB

11

2

HR

2

6

BB

2

5

K

5

7

LOB

10

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 8·MIN +105/TOR -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    63.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.5%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 99
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    189
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    208
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 93
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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