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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7HOU
HOU

HOU

9-15

9
2
CLE

CLE

13-11

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
12,565 attended

Line movement

26 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

CLE no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%CLE NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 9 · CLE 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2004101019
CLE1010000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Apr 20·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -136

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU9-15
9
2
CLE13-11
HOU9-15·CLE13-11
HOU

HOU

9-15

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
3-55132002
SPRINT27.251
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-55010000
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-55000000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-55332101
SPRINT25.920
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
3-55232200
SPRINT25.18
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-11010010
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44011000
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
0-33100010
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
1-33111010
SPRINT28.278
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-22101001
SPRINT29.395
Team13-38389139334
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
5.0522430
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0100000
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000110
J. MurrayJ. MurrayRP
2.0200120
Team9.0822660
CLE

CLE

13-11

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44000010
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
0-44000010
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44210011
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-55010003
SPRINT25.411
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
2-44021011
SPRINT24.96
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
1-33011010
SPRINT25.513
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-33000000
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-44000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
3-33030010
SPRINT27.354
Team8-3434282066
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
5.01076222
M. FestaM. FestaRP
2.0111010
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0100100
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0111011
Team9.01398343

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Arrighetti
    96 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      23%·87.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      20%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·78.2 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.2 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Murray
    39 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      38%·80.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Okert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.4 mph·100% whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      29%·80.9 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      26%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·74.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      16%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.1 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      26%·81.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      58%·83.3 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

9

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2today
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Apr 20HOUHOU9@CLECLE2today
Apr 21HOUHOU5@CLECLE8
Apr 22HOUHOU2@CLECLE0
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 20CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming
Jun 21CLECLE@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11347%
CLECLE-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat CLE 9-2. Walker's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 62% WP

Walker · homered to left center (391 feet), Correa scored.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 60% WP

Paredes · homered to left (383 feet).

HOUTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 79% WP

Matthews · doubled to left, Smith scored, Harris to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2004101019
CLE1010000002

Period scoring

HOU won 5 · CLE won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Walker 2

Hoskins 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Valera 1

4
0

Inn 4

Correa 2

1
0

Inn 5

Diaz 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Paredes 1

HOU
CLE

Play-by-play · 624 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  3. B9

    Hoskins singled to left, Hoskins out stretching at second.

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 2

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  11. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Rhys Hoskins

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  12. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  13. B9

    Manzardo struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  20. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  21. B9

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  22. B9

    Ramírez flied out to right.

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  29. B9

    Jayden Murray pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    HOU 9·CLE 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 9·CLE 2

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

9

Runs

2

13

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

24

TB

10

3

HR

0

3

BB

6

4

K

6

19

LOB

19

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7·HOU +113/CLE -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395

Player projections

CLE vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    62.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 96
    205
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    48
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    34
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs