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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
WSH

WSH

3-3

5
6
PHI

PHI

3-3

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
37,469 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

70.8%

open 70.8%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL74.8%66.8%PHI NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 5 · PHI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
WSH01000130005
PHI10000011216

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 99
    97
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    189
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 95
    202
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+228

Close price

+228

Open no-vig

29.2%

Close no-vig

29.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -285

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Washington Nationals, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

WSH +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
WSH3-3
5
6
PHI3-3
WSH3-3·PHI3-3
WSH

WSH

3-3

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-55000001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-33000000
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-44020010
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-55120001
SPRINT29.395
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
2-44220012
SPRINT28.891
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44113111
SPRINT28.483
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44000002
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33110011
SPRINT29.496
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-44011002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
1-22010001
Team10-383851041411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
6.0511230
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
0.2111011
C. PerezC. PerezRP
0.2211001
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0111000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1011200
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.1310100
Team9.01265542
PHI

PHI

3-3

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44210010
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-33011011
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000010
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44020010
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-55110000
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-33121110
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
3-55031001
SPRINT29.798
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
1-22012000
SPRINT28.278
Team12-38386126254
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
5.1411470
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
0.2211010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0333011
Z. PopZ. PopRP
1.0000010
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0100000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team10.010554111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.5 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      19%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Perez
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • CU
      48%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      14%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      56%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      44%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      33%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      73%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.8 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    97 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.3 mph·4% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.7 mph·57% whiff
  • B. Keller
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Pop
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      75%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      38%·89.6 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Duran
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      50%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·98.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

12

5

Runs

6

2

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6today

Season series

PHI leads series 2-1

Mar 30WSHWSH13@PHIPHI2
Mar 31WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3
Apr 1WSHWSH5@PHIPHI6today
Jun 22PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 23PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 24PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Jun 25PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Aug 3WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 4WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 5WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Aug 6WSHWSH@PHIPHIupcoming
Sep 15PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 16PHIPHI@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+22830%
PHIPHI-28574%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 46pp · Bottom 9th Inning

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 6-5. Sosa's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 7th Inning · 5-1
+29pp→ 93% WP

Abrams · homered to right center (391 feet), Lile scored and Wiemer scored.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+46pp→ 63% WP

Sosa · singled to left, Moore scored and Turner scored, Bohm to second, Sosa to second, Bohm safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Wood.

PHIBottom 10th Inning · 5-5
+31pp→ 93% WP

Realmuto · singled to right, Marsh to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
WSH01000130005
PHI10000011216

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · PHI won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

1
0

Inn 2

Millas 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Millas 1

3
1

Inn 7

Abrams 3

Realmuto 1

0
1

Inn 8

Harper 1

0
2

Inn 9

Sosa 2

0
1

Inn 10

Crawford 1

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 649 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 6

  2. B10

    Crawford singled to right, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 6

    +7pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 6

  4. B10

    Cole Henry pitches to Justin Crawford

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 6

  5. B10

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  6. B10

    Realmuto singled to right, Marsh to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

    +31pp

  7. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  8. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  9. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  10. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  11. B10

    Cole Henry pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  12. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  13. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  14. T10

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  15. T10

    Abrams lined into double play, second to shortstop, Lile doubled off second.

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  16. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  17. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  18. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  19. T10

    Jhoan Duran pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  20. T10

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  21. T10

    Wiemer struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

    +12pp

  22. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  23. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  24. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  25. T10

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Joey Wiemer

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  26. T10

    Duran relieved Alvarado

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  27. T10

    Moore as designated hitter.

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  28. T10

    Top of the 10th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  29. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 5

  30. B9

    · ·

    WSH 5·PHI 5

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

6

10

Hits

12

2

Errors

0

14

TB

20

1

HR

2

4

BB

5

11

K

4

17

LOB

19

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·WSH +228/PHI -285

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688