• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+7CHC
CHC

CHC

5-6

9
2
TB

TB

5-6

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
21,377 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TB no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0TB SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL56.2%48.2%TB NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 9 · TB 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0220011129
TB0000000202

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 1, 26sim 98
    133
    1(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 98
    155
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 97
    1811
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 96
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 96
    138
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasTB -120

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 9–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC5-6
9
2
TB5-6
CHC5-6·TB5-6
CHC

CHC

5-6

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44022010
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-55000001
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
3-55130000
SPRINT25.818
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
3-55331100
SPRINT29.294
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-55000001
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-44223100
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-55220001
SPRINT27.867
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
2-33121020
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-55021002
Team16-41419168235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AssadJ. Assad★SP
5.2100230
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1200000
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.2322010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.1000000
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0000110
Team9.0622350
TB

TB

5-6

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33100000
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.29
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-22000000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33000012
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT29.496
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000011
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-44000000
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT26.838
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-44000001
R. ViladeR. ViladeRF
1-22011000
SPRINT28.483
Team6-3232262035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. EnglertM. Englert★RP
3.2743120
C. SulserC. SulserRP
2.1311120
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
3.0644112
Team9.01698352

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • J. Assad
    80 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.2 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • P. Maton
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      58%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.5 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • CH
      29%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Webb
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      43%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      43%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      50%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • M. Englert
    65 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      29%·86.2 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      11%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    58 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    37 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      46%·91.4 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      41%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.0 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

6

9

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2today
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2today
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC+10050%
TBTB-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

J. Assad

J. Assad

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

TBTB
J. Aranda

J. Aranda

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Englert

M. Englert

RP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat TB 9-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 67% WP

Shaw · doubled to left, Conforto scored.

CHCBottom 5th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 92% WP

Fortes · grounded into double play, third to first, Caminero out at third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0220011129
TB0000000202

Period scoring

CHC won 5 · TB won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Conforto 1

2
0

Inn 3

Amaya 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Hoerner 1

1
0

Inn 7

Crow-Armstrong 1

1
2

Inn 8

Hoerner 1

Aranda 1

2
0

Inn 9

Ballesteros 2

CHC
TB

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 9·TB 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  3. B9

    Walls grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  9. B9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  10. B9

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  11. B9

    Palacios struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  15. B9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Richie Palacios

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  16. B9

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  17. B9

    Fortes popped out to catcher.

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  19. B9

    Mullins to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  20. B9

    Mullins to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  22. B9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Nick Fortes

    · ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  23. B9

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  24. B9

    Mullins walked.

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  29. B9

    Jacob Webb pitches to Cedric Mullins

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

  30. B9

    Webb relieved Thielbar

    ·

    CHC 9·TB 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TB

Home

9

Runs

2

16

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

25

TB

7

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

5

K

5

19

LOB

18

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8.5·CHC +100/TB -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TB vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.6± 3.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.7%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.