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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7BAL
BOS

BOS

9-17

3
10
BAL

BAL

13-13

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
26,776 attended

Line movement

26 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 49.4%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BOS 3 · BAL 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0100110003
BAL4112101010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 24·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -126

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Boston Red Sox, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BAL +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS9-17
3
10
BAL13-13
BOS9-17·BAL13-13
BOS

BOS

9-17

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55010000
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44001000
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44010000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000004
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-44221101
SPRINT2872
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-33020010
SPRINT27.969
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT28.175
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44010001
Team10-35353103126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
3.11388125
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
2.2311111
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
2.0411020
Team8.0201010256
BAL

BAL

13-13

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
3-55331101
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
4-44240010
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
3-55236200
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-55010001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
3-55131100
SPRINT29.194
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
4-55141100
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-44000011
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
2-55121102
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000000
Team20-4242102010625
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
5.2733151
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1000000
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000000
C. FosterC. FosterRP
2.0300110
Team9.01033261

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.4 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.6 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    43 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      30%·90.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      26%·83.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Moran
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      42%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.1 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      17%·84.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      6%·78.2 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • B. Young
    93 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      31%·87.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      26%·82.7 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.8 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·74.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Foster
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      41%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.6 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      63%·88.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      100%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

20

3

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10today
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10today
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3
Jun 2BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 3BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 4BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 20BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 21BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 22BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 3BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 4BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 5BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 6BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+10449%
BALBAL-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BOSBOS
W. Abreu

W. Abreu

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 8 ER · 13 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat BOS 10-3.

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 85% WP

Rutschman · homered to right center (395 feet), Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0100110003
BAL41121010—10

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · BAL won 4

0
4

Inn 1

Rutschman 2

1
1

Inn 2

Abreu 1

Rutschman 1

0
1

Inn 3

Basallo 1

0
2

Inn 4

Rutschman 2

1
1

Inn 5

Rafaela 1

Mayo 1

1
0

Inn 6

Mayer 1

0
1

Inn 7

Rutschman 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  2. T9

    Duran popped out to third.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  5. T9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  6. T9

    Durbin to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  8. T9

    Cameron Foster pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  9. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  10. T9

    Narváez flied into double play, right to catcher to shortstop, Mayer doubled off second.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

    +1pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  16. T9

    Cameron Foster pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  17. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  18. T9

    Durbin walked, Mayer to second, Story to third.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

    −0.8pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  23. T9

    Cameron Foster pitches to Caleb Durbin

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  24. T9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  25. T9

    Mayer singled to right, Story to second.

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  29. T9

    Cameron Foster pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

  30. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 10

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

10

10

Hits

20

0

Errors

0

15

TB

39

1

HR

6

2

BB

2

6

K

5

18

LOB

15

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS +104/BAL -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    289
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 97
    226
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 97
    236
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    298
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 96
    49
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 96
    43
    26(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.