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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
TEX

TEX

7-6

7
8
LAD

LAD

10-3

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,675 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

67.5%

open 67.5%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL71.5%63.5%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 65.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

TEX 7 · LAD 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0030100037
LAD0101120218

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1/VegasLAD -240

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Texas Rangers, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.

TEX +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

3.400OPS

5-4

AB-H

5

R

3

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX7-6
7
8
LAD10-3
TEX7-6·LAD10-3
TEX

TEX

7-6

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44110012
SPRINT28.278
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-33111100
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-55113103
SPRINT24.96
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-44000000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000003
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33112111
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
1-44010003
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44110001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-33010010
E. DuranE. Duran2B
1-22011001
SPRINT28.891
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
1-11110000
Team9-36367973314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
5.0533252
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0322100
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0200000
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
1.0422101
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
0.2111021
Team8.21588474
LAD

LAD

10-3

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010011
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44010011
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-55010002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-44000012
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
4-55543300
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
3-33234110
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-22010000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-11001001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
2-22020000
SPRINT26.123
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
1-22010000
Team15-36368158447
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
6.0544172
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000130
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000020
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0433121
Team9.09773143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • R. Garcia
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.9 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • T. Scott
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Vesia
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      83%·89.9 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

15

7

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8today
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

Apr 11TEXTEX7@LADLAD8today
Apr 12TEXTEX3@LADLAD6
Apr 12TEXTEX5@LADLAD2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX+19434%
LADLAD-24071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the game3-HR game

4-for-5 · 3 HR · 3.400 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat TEX 8-7. Muncy's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Win probability

LAD vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 6th Inning · 4-5
+29pp→ 83% WP

Pages · doubled to right, T. Hernández scored and Muncy scored.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 7-7
+32pp→ 44% WP

Duran · singled to left, Haggerty scored, Nimmo to second.

LADBottom 9th Inning · 7-8
+45pp→ 100% WP

Muncy · homered to right center (401 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0030100037
LAD0101120218

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · LAD won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Muncy 1

3
0

Inn 3

Seager 3

0
1

Inn 4

Muncy 1

1
1

Inn 5

Langford 1

Kim 1

0
2

Inn 6

Pages 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Pages 2

3
1

Inn 9

Carter 2

Muncy 1

TEX
LAD

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 8

  2. B9

    Muncy homered to right center (401 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 8

    +45pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 8

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  6. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 8

  7. B9

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  8. B9

    Freeman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

    −6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  15. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  16. B9

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  17. B9

    Smith struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

    −7pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  25. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  26. B9

    Latz relieved Curvelo

    ·

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  27. B9

    Haggerty in left field.

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  28. B9

    Pederson as designated hitter.

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  29. B9

    Duran at third base.

    TEX 7·LAD 7

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 7·LAD 7

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

7

Runs

8

9

Hits

15

0

Errors

0

18

TB

29

3

HR

4

3

BB

4

14

K

7

8

LOB

12

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +194/LAD -240

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+194

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

LAD vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    63.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.0%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 4, 26sim 93
    287
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 93
    287
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 92
    133
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 90
    176
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 89
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 89
    132
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs