
TEX
7-6

LAD
10-3
Line movement
9 snapshots
LAD spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
LAD no-vig %
67.5%
open 67.5%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
TEX 7 · LAD 8 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked LAD +13pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off Texas Rangers, 8–7. It came down to the final possession.
TEX +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TEX · top performer

Joc Pederson
DH
1-1
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
LAD · top performer

Max Muncy
3B
5-4
AB-H
5
R
3
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


TEX
7-6
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.278 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
SPRINT24.96 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9-36 | 36 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 8.2 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
LAD
10-3
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 4-5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.354 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.381 | ||||||||
| 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.123 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 15-36 | 36 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantTEX
LAD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
15
7
Runs
8
0
Errors
0
Current series
LAD win series 2-1
Season series
LAD lead series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAD -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning
J. Pederson
DHBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
K. Rocker
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
M. Muncy
3BBatter of the game3-HR game
4-for-5 · 3 HR · 3.400 OPS
T. Glasnow
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
How it ended
LAD beat TEX 8-7. Muncy's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).
Win probability
LAD vs TEX
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPages · doubled to right, T. Hernández scored and Muncy scored.
Duran · singled to left, Haggerty scored, Nimmo to second.
Muncy · homered to right center (401 feet).
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Period scoring
TEX won 2 · LAD won 4
Inn 1
Inn 2
Muncy 1
Inn 3
Seager 3
Inn 4
Muncy 1
Inn 5
Langford 1
Kim 1
Inn 6
Pages 2
Inn 7
Inn 8
Pages 2
Inn 9
Carter 2
Muncy 1
Play-by-play · 618 plays
·
TEX 7·LAD 8
Muncy homered to right center (401 feet).BIG MOMENT
·
TEX 7·LAD 8
+45pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
TEX 7·LAD 8
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Jacob Latz pitches to Max Muncy
·
TEX 7·LAD 8
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Freeman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
−6pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Jacob Latz pitches to Freddie Freeman
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Smith struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
TEX 7·LAD 7
−7pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Jacob Latz pitches to Will Smith
· ·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Latz relieved Curvelo
·
TEX 7·LAD 7
Haggerty in left field.
TEX 7·LAD 7
Pederson as designated hitter.
TEX 7·LAD 7
Duran at third base.
TEX 7·LAD 7
Bottom of the 9th inning
TEX 7·LAD 7
Team stats
TEX
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
7
Runs
8
9
Hits
15
0
Errors
0
18
TB
29
3
HR
4
3
BB
4
14
K
7
8
LOB
12
Betting line
LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +194/LAD -240
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortThe receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+194
Close price
+194
Open no-vig
32.5%
Close no-vig
32.5%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 80 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
65.8%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
63.2%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.7%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.76 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs