• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6NYY
MIA

MIA

5-2

2
8
NYY

NYY

6-1

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
48,788 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

NYY no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.0%56.0%NYY NO-VIG %MODEL 62.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 24, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

MIA 2 · NYY 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1000100002
NYY220001128

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 3·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasNYY -168

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Miami Marlins, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Xavier Edwards

Xavier Edwards

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA5-2
2
8
NYY6-1
MIA5-2·NYY6-1
MIA

MIA

5-2

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.765
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44121100
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-33010001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000000
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-33000002
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-33111101
SPRINT28.586
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-33000002
G. ConineG. Conine★LF
0-22000001
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-22000000
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000000
H. HernandezH. HernandezLF
0-11000001
Team4-30302422010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
4.0244641
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.0110230
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0111111
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0222220
Team8.068711102
NYY

NYY

6-1

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-22101031
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-33223111
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110010
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-55123103
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-55000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22100021
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33100011
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22000021
Team6-292986721110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.2422062
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1000000
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
1.0000020
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0000020
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
1.0000000
Team9.04220102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    84 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.3 mph·24% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.9 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      4%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    52 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      29%·88.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      46%·90.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      45%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.6 mph·50% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    77 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bird
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • CU
      36%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Headrick
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      50%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      40%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·70.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

2

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Apr 3MIAMIA2@NYYNYY8today
Apr 4MIAMIA7@NYYNYY9
Apr 5MIAMIA7@NYYNYY6

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Apr 3MIAMIA2@NYYNYY8today
Apr 4MIAMIA7@NYYNYY9
Apr 5MIAMIA7@NYYNYY6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+13942%
NYYNYY-16863%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MIAMIA
X. Edwards

X. Edwards

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 2 H · 6 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

NYY beat MIA 8-2.

Win probability

NYY vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 54% WP

Edwards · homered to right center (377 feet).

NYYBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+16pp→ 69% WP

Judge · homered to left (387 feet), Grisham scored.

MIATop 5th Inning · 2-4
+7pp→ 18% WP

Caissie · homered to right center (379 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1000100002
NYY22000112—8

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · NYY won 5

1
2

Inn 1

Edwards 1

Judge 2

0
2

Inn 2

Grisham 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Caissie 1

0
1

Inn 6

Bellinger 1

0
1

Inn 7

Rice 1

0
2

Inn 8

Rice 2

0

Inn 9

MIA
NYY

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  2. T9

    Hicks flied out to left.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  4. T9

    Ramírez picked off second.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  5. T9

    Ramírez picked off second.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  7. T9

    Ramírez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  8. T9

    Ramírez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  13. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Liam Hicks

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  14. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  15. T9

    Ramírez hit by pitch.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  17. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  18. T9

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  19. T9

    Edwards lined out to left.

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  23. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  24. T9

    Yarbrough relieved Headrick

    ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  27. B8

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  28. B8

    Stanton struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 2·NYY 8

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

8

4

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

10

TB

15

2

HR

2

0

BB

11

10

K

10

2

LOB

22

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8·MIA +139/NYY -168

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYY vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.3± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    61.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.2%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 7, 26sim 95
    173
    16(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 95
    292
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 94
    132
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    254
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 93
    287
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 92
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs