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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIA
MIA

MIA

6-3

7
6
NYY

NYY

7-2

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
34,807 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYY no-vig %

72.7%

open 72.7%

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL76.7%68.7%NYY NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · NYY 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1001010407
NYY3010000026

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 6, 26sim 96
    176
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 95
    287
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    294
    16(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 93
    132
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 93
    282
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 93
    137
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+251

Close price

+251

Open no-vig

27.3%

Close no-vig

27.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 5·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1/VegasNYY -317

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into New York Yankees and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Graham Pauley

Graham Pauley

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA6-3
7
6
NYY7-2
MIA6-3·NYY7-2
MIA

MIA

6-3

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
2-33120001
SPRINT27.662
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-55000003
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33200022
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-33121010
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33001000
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
0-11100020
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44023000
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-44000000
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000001
O. CaissieO. CaissieRF
0-22000002
G. PauleyG. Pauley3B
1-11112000
SPRINT26.326
Team7-3333777059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. FairbanksP. Fairbanks★RP
1.0333111
A. NardiA. NardiRP
1.0000010
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
4.2310440
J. KingJ. KingRP
0.1000000
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000110
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0122320
Team9.0765991
NYY

NYY

7-2

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44100012
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-55220001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-22100030
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-22213130
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-55020002
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-55012000
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000012
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-44000000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010011
J.C. EscarraJ.C. EscarraC
0-11000001
Team7-3535675199
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
6.2533340
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2011120
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
1.2100030
Team9.0777590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • C. Paddack
    88 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      31%·92.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.9 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      16%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·76.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Bender
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      42%·85.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      35%·82.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      37%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      22%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      39%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nardi
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      40%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      20%·79.5 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    103 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      26%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·92.1 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.7 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      14%·73.9 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    23 pitches·48% CSW
    • FF
      35%·86.7 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      26%·70.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      22%·75.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FS
      69%·80.0 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bird
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

7

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Apr 3MIAMIA2@NYYNYY8
Apr 4MIAMIA7@NYYNYY9
Apr 5MIAMIA7@NYYNYY6today

Season series

NYY win series 2-1

Apr 3MIAMIA2@NYYNYY8
Apr 4MIAMIA7@NYYNYY9
Apr 5MIAMIA7@NYYNYY6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIAMIA+25128%
NYYNYY-31776%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 8th Inning

MIAMIA
G. Pauley

G. Pauley

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYY 7-6. Pauley's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 6th Inning · 3-4
+19pp→ 79% WP

Norby · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lopez out at home.

MIATop 8th Inning · 5-4
+38pp→ 80% WP

Pauley · doubled to right, Marsee scored and Lopez scored, Conine to third.

MIABottom 9th Inning · 7-6
+17pp→ 100% WP

Escarra · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1001010407
NYY3010000026

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · NYY won 3

1
3

Inn 1

Lopez 1

Rice 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rice 1

1
0

Inn 4

Edwards 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Marsee 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Pauley 2

0
2

Inn 9

Jr. 2

MIA
NYY

Play-by-play · 653 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  3. B9

    Escarra struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

    −17pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  7. B9

    Anthony Bender pitches to J.C. Escarra

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  8. B9

    Escarra hit for Caballero

    ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  10. B9

    Wells intentionally walked.

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

    +2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  15. B9

    Anthony Bender pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  16. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  17. B9

    Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Rice scored and Bellinger scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

    +11pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  23. B9

    Anthony Bender pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 6

  24. B9

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  25. B9

    Stanton struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

    −6pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

  30. B9

    Anthony Bender pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYY 4

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

7

Runs

6

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

9

TB

12

0

HR

1

5

BB

9

9

K

9

12

LOB

23

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIA +251/NYY -317

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    62.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.