MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

MIA

5-3

NYY

7-1

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

44,150 attended

Line movement

17 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYY no-vig %

63.8%

open 63.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.1%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.5%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+164

Close price

+164

Open no-vig

36.2%

Close no-vig

36.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYY vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.3± 0.8high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.2± 1.6high
Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Ryan GustoMIA
2.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYY

.701

OPS

.717

▶

.770

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.21

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.30

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

MIA 7 · NYY 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	7
NYY	0	0	0	0	2	3	1	3	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SlaterRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. RamirezC	.273	3	2	2	1	0	2	0
J. MarseeCF	.129	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
O. LopezSS	.300	5	2	2	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.150	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.174	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.467	4	2	3	1	0	1	0
L. Jimenez3B	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.529	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
G. ConineLF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.400	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
O. CaissieRF	.320	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		41	7	15	6	0	5	10

Player

.000

.273

.129

.300

.150

.174

.467

.400

.529

.267

.400

.320

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MeyerSP	4.2	3	2	2	3	6	89
A. NardiRP	0.1	0	1	1	3	1	21
A. BenderRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	15
J. KingRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	2	16
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	3	2	3	0	30
Team	8.0	6	9	7	10	11	181

Player

4.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	2	0
A. JudgeRF	.226	4	2	2	1	0	1	0
C. BellingerLF	.286	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
B. Rice1B	.360	3	1	0	0	0	2	3
G. StantonDH	.393	3	1	1	2	0	2	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.194	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.148	3	1	0	0	0	0	3
R. McMahon3B	.050	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
R. GrichukRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J.C. EscarraC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	9	6	7	1	10	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	3.2	6	3	3	3	4	88
P. BlackburnRP	1.2	3	1	0	0	2	28
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
F. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
C. DovalRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	1	23
B. HeadrickRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	7
D. BednarRP	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	33
Team	9.0	15	7	6	5	10	198

Team

MIA

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYY vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.