MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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TOP 5THTied

TEX

17-19

NYY

25-12

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

55.5%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 63.7% NYY

TEX 1 · 1 NYY

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsNYY leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTEXTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 38% WP
Duran · homered to left (374 feet).
SwingNYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 73% WP
Goldschmidt · tripled to right.

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.88

M. Gore

2-2 · 4.67 ERA

P. Blackburn

1-1 · 3.21 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

NYY no-vig %

55.9%

open 63.1% · -7.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
63.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.9%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

53.8%

-9.9ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

high

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Why we like NYY.

NYY's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.2

pp edge · NYY

0.5u · small

on NYY

62.0%

±6.2pp band

0.49u small — +0.8pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+3.4pp

-1.7pp post-cal

Kelly

2.0%

0.5% sized

Decimal

1.63

+0.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.2pp · NYY over TEX

▼
Line steam90% conf
The market moved 7.1pp away from NYY since open.
-1.8pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
NYY's venue form is 45.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
TEX is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
NYY is 4-1 over its last 5; TEX is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
NYY is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NYY has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

NYY vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 3.2low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.3low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.4± 0.8high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.1high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
3.0± 2.5high
Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.4± 3.2high

RBIs

Aaron JudgeNYY
1.0± 1.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.0± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.3± 2.0low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.4low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Thu, May 7

TEX

Rangers

17-19

vs63.7%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

25-12

TEX 36.3%win prob63.7% NYY

NYY 1578 · TEX 1504Box score→

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

53.8%

-9.9ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

high

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLBThu, May 7Top 5thSeriestied 1-1VegasNYY -158

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

TEX · NYY

TEX

17-19

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
B. Nimmo★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	.289	.370	.444	0.000
E. Duran★LF	1-1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	7	.312	.386	.506	5.000
C. Seager★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12	.214	.323	.420	—
J. Jung★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	.320	.377	.512	0.000
J. Pederson★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	.207	.306	.293	1.000
J. Burger★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	.215	.250	.375	0.000
E. Carter★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	.174	.295	.330	0.000
D. Jansen★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	.195	.287	.351	0.500
J. Foscue★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	.000	.000	.000	0.000

Team	2-12	12	1	2	1	1	5	1	76				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
M. Gore★SP	4.0	4	1	1	1	3	0	67-43	4.42	67
Team	4.0	4	1	1	1	3	0	67-43		67

NYY

25-12

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
P. Goldschmidt★1B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	7	.208	.296	.458	1.000
A. Judge★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	.269	.402	.649	0.000
C. Bellinger★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	6	.288	.382	.523	1.000
A. Rosario★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	9	.258	.304	.500	0.000
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.206	.291	.336	0.000
J. Dominguez★LF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.250	.367	—
T. Grisham★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	7	.169	.301	.356	1.000
M. Schuemann★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	.000	.250	.000	0.000
J.C. Escarra★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.194	.216	.333	0.000
R. McMahon3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	13	.217	.301	.348	2.000
Team	4-16	16	1	4	1	0	1	3	67				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
P. Blackburn★RP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	24-10	3.00	24
B. BeckSP	3.0	2	1	1	3	1	1	52-28	3.00	52
Team	4.0	2	1	1	5	1	1	76-38		76

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 5

TEX4@

NYY7

May 6

TEX6@

NYY1

May 7

TEX@

NYYtoday

Season series

NYY lead series 3-2

Apr 28

NYY4@

TEX2

Apr 29

NYY3@

TEX2

Apr 29

NYY0@

TEX3

May 5

TEX4@

NYY7

May 6

TEX6@

NYY1

May 7

TEX@

NYYtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

TEX+13143%

NYY-15861%

53· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

TEXSP

M. Gore

#1 · 2-2

ERA

4.67

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

DET3.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-

4/25vs

ATH5.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K-

4/19@

SEA5.0 IP · 5 ER · 5 KL(2-2)

NYYRP

P. Blackburn

#58 · 1-1

ERA

3.21

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vs

BAL1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

5/2vs

BAL2.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-

4/26@

HOU3.0 IP · 1 ER · 2 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

TEX4L · 5R

1
B. Nimmo
DH · #24
L
2
E. Duran
LF · #20
R
3
C. Seager
SS · #5
L
4
J. Jung
3B · #6
R
5
J. Pederson
RF · #3
L
6
J. Burger
1B · #21
R
7
E. Carter
CF · #32
L
8
D. Jansen
C · #9
R
9
J. Foscue
2B · #14
R

NYY4L · 4R · 1S

1
P. Goldschmidt
1B · #48
R
2
A. Judge
DH · #99
R
3
C. Bellinger
LF · #35
L
4
A. Rosario
RF · #14
R
5
J. Chisholm Jr.
2B · #13
L
6
J. Dominguez
LF · #24
B
7
T. Grisham
CF · #12
L
8
M. Schuemann
SS · #30
R
9
J.C. Escarra
C · #25
L

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th

Game flowTEX ↔ NYY

Recent swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

Just happened

Brendan Beck · pitches to Brandon Nimmo

TEX

E. Duran

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

M. Gore

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 2 ER

NYY

R. McMahon

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Beck

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it's going

Tied 1-1 · Top 5th.

Win probability

NYY vs TEX

Score progression

0 lead changes

TEX1

NYY1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-0

+12pp→ 73% WP

Goldschmidt · tripled to right.

TEXTop 3rd Inning · 1-1

+11pp→ 38% WP

Duran · homered to left (374 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
TEX	0	0	1	0	0	1
NYY	1	0	0	0	—	1

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · NYY won 1

Inn 1

Bellinger 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Duran 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

TEX

NYY

Game flow · key plays

T5
Osuna walked.
TEX 1·NYY 1
−6pp
B4
Schuemann grounded out to first.
TEX 1·NYY 1
−4pp
T3
Duran homered to left (374 feet).
TEX 1·NYY 1
−11pp
B1
Rosario struck out swinging.
TEX 0·NYY 1
−5pp
B1
Bellinger tripled to right, Goldschmidt scored.
TEX 0·NYY 1
+8pp
B1
Goldschmidt tripled to right.
TEX 0·NYY 0
+12pp

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX +131/NYY -158

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

NYY vs TEX.

122

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 3.2low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.3low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.4± 0.8high
Ben RiceNYY
1.3± 1.1high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
3.0± 2.5high
Ben RiceNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.4± 3.2high

RBIs

Aaron JudgeNYY
1.0± 1.2high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.0± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.3± 2.0low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.4low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

65.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
63.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.9%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like NYY.

NYY's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.2

pp edge · NYY

0.5u · small

on NYY

62.0%

±6.2pp band

0.49u small — +0.8pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+3.4pp

-1.7pp post-cal

Kelly

2.0%

0.5% sized

Decimal

1.63

+0.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.2pp · NYY over TEX

▼
Line steam90% conf
The market moved 7.1pp away from NYY since open.
-1.8pp
▲
Venue split72% conf
NYY's venue form is 45.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.5pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
TEX is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
NYY is 4-1 over its last 5; TEX is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
NYY is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NYY has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp