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TOP 5TH+2CHC

CIN

20-16

CHC

24-12

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

66.4%

CHC wins · current

Pre-game: 62.6% CHC

CIN 2 · 4 CHC

CHC +2

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.98

B. Singer

2-2 · 5.57 ERA

C. Rea

4-1 · 4.41 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.0% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

96.3%

+33.7ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Market came to the model

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.1± 4.4low
Edward CabreraCHC
5.3± 2.2low

Hits

Carson KellyCHC
1.1± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.1± 0.6high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.5± 3.1low
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 2.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 1.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 0.9high
Dansby SwansonCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew AbbottCIN
2.9± 3.3low
Brady SingerCIN
2.9± 1.8low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.9± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

CIN

Reds

20-16

vs62.6%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

24-12

CIN 37.4%win prob62.6% CHC

CHC 1567 · CIN 1501Box score→

MLBWed, May 6Top 5thSeriesCHC lead series 2-0VegasCHC -169

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CIN · CHC

CIN

20-16

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
T. Friedl★CF	1-1	1	0	0	2.000
J. Bleday★LF	1-2	0	0	0	1.000
E. De La Cruz★SS	0-2	0	1	0	0.000
S. Stewart★1B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
N. Lowe★1B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
S. Steer★LF	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
W. Benson★RF	1-1	0	0	0	2.000
J. Trevino★C	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
M. McLain★2B	2-2	1	1	1	3.500
Team	5-16	2	2	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
B. Singer★SP	4.0	5	4	2
Team	4.0	5	4	2

CHC

24-12

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
N. Hoerner★2B	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
M. Ballesteros★C	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
A. Bregman★3B	1-2	1	0	0	1.000
I. Happ★LF	2-2	2	2	1	3.500
S. Suzuki★RF	1-2	1	1	0	1.000
M. Busch★1B	1-1	0	0	0	2.000
C. Kelly★C	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
D. Swanson★SS	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
Team	5-16	4	3	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
C. Rea★SP	4.0	5	1	3
Team	4.0	5	1	3

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

CHC lead series 2-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN2@

CHC3

May 6

CIN@

CHCtoday

May 7

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Season series

CHC lead series 2-0

May 4

CIN4@

CHC5

May 5

CIN2@

CHC3

May 6

CIN@

CHCtoday

May 7

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Jul 10

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 11

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 12

CHC@

CINupcoming

Aug 28

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 29

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 30

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Sep 18

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 19

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 20

CHC@

CINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

8.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

CIN+14042%

CHC-16963%

7· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+8.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CINSP

B. Singer

#51 · 2-2

ERA

5.57

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

PIT3.1 IP · 4 ER · 1 KL(2-2)

4/25vs

DET5.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(2-1)

4/19@

MIN6.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-

CHCSP

C. Rea

#53 · 4-1

ERA

4.41

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vs

ARI5.1 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(4-1)

4/25@

LAD3.1 IP · 6 ER · 4 KL(3-1)

4/20vs

PHI6.2 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CIN4L · 4R · 1S

1
T. Friedl
CF · #29
L
2
J. Bleday
LF · #22
L
3
E. De La Cruz
SS · #44
B
4
S. Stewart
3B · #27
R
5
N. Lowe
DH · #31
L
6
S. Steer
1B · #7
R
7
W. Benson
RF · #30
L
8
J. Trevino
C · #35
R
9
M. McLain
2B · #9
R

CHC3L · 5R · 1S

1
N. Hoerner
2B · #2
R
2
M. Ballesteros
DH · #25
L
3
A. Bregman
3B · #3
R
4
I. Happ
LF · #8
B
5
S. Suzuki
RF · #27
R
6
M. Busch
1B · #29
L
7
C. Kelly
C · #15
R
8
P. Crow-Armstrong
CF · #4
L
9
D. Swanson
SS · #7
R

Live · top performers so far

Top 5th

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Recent swing: 10pp · Top 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Strike 2 Foul

CIN

M. McLain

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

B. Singer

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 7 ER

CHC

I. Happ

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Rea

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 2 ER

How it's going

CHC lead CIN 4-2 (Top 5th). Happ's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

Score progression

1 lead change

CIN2

CHC4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CINTop 1st Inning · 0-0

+9pp→ 49% WP

Bleday · singled to left, Friedl to third.

CHCBottom 1st Inning · 1-2

+18pp→ 74% WP

Happ · homered to left center (399 feet), Bregman scored.

CINTop 3rd Inning · 1-2

+10pp→ 41% WP

Friedl · singled to right, McLain to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
CIN	1	0	0	0	1	2
CHC	2	0	0	2	—	4

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · CHC won 2

Inn 1

Cruz 1

Happ 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Suzuki 1

Inn 5

McLain 1

CIN

CHC

Game flow · key plays

T5
McLain homered to right center (371 feet).
CIN 2·CHC 4
−7pp
B4
Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored.
CIN 1·CHC 3
+8pp
T3
De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Friedl to second, McLain out at home.
CIN 1·CHC 2
+8pp
T3
Friedl singled to right, McLain to third.
CIN 1·CHC 2
−10pp
B1
Happ homered to left center (399 feet), Bregman scored.
CIN 1·CHC 2
+18pp
T1
Bleday singled to left, Friedl to third.
CIN 0·CHC 0
−9pp

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8·CIN +140/CHC -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.85

CLV pp

Open price

-168

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Market came to the model

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

96.3%

+33.7ppvs pre-game · CHC favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

120

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.6± 3.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.1± 4.4low
Edward CabreraCHC
5.3± 2.2low

Hits

Carson KellyCHC
1.1± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.1± 0.6high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
2.5± 3.1low
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 2.3high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

Michael BuschCHC
0.8± 1.4high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 0.9high
Dansby SwansonCHC
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew AbbottCIN
2.9± 3.3low
Brady SingerCIN
2.9± 1.8low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.9± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

63.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen