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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
TOP 7TH+4BOS↑
BOS

BOS

15-21

4
0
DET

DET

18-19

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

69.1%

BOS wins · current

Pre-game: 52.0% DET

BOS 4 · 0 DET

BOS +4

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.20

S. Gray

2-1 · 4.30 ERA

vs

J. Flaherty

0-2 · 5.90 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

52.6%

open 52.6%

+2.0+1.0DET SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.6%48.6%DET NO-VIG %MODEL 52.0%May 5, 11 PMMay 6, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

The One modelTossup
● Live
BOS4

BOS

Red Sox

15-21

vs52.0%DET

DET★

Tigers

18-19

DET0
BOS 48.0%win prob52.0% DET
DET 1497 · BOS 1507Box score→

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 65-38
58%Last 30 · 246-177
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, May 6·Top 7th/SeriesBOS leads series 2-0/VegasDET -110
Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BOS · DET

BOS

BOS

15-21

4
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
J. Duran
J. Duran★LF
0-30000.250
W. Contreras
W. Contreras★1B
0-20100.333
W. Abreu
W. Abreu★RF
0-30000.000
T. Story
T. Story★SS
0-30000.000
M. Yoshida
M. Yoshida★LF
2-31001.333
C. Rafaela
C. Rafaela★CF
0-21000.333
M. Mayer
M. Mayer★2B
1-31000.667
C. Narvaez
C. Narvaez★C
0-11000.500
C. Durbin
C. Durbin★3B
1-30100.667
Team4-23420—
PlayerIPHERK
S. Gray
S. Gray★SP
5.0402
T. Samaniego
T. SamaniegoRP
1.0001
Team6.0403
DET

DET

18-19

0
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
K. McGonigle
K. McGonigle★SS
0-30000.000
M. Vierling
M. Vierling★CF
1-30000.667
C. Keith
C. Keith★3B
1-30000.667
R. Greene
R. Greene★LF
2-30001.333
D. Dingler
D. Dingler★C
0-30000.000
K. Carpenter
K. Carpenter★RF
0-20000.000
Z. McKinstry
Z. McKinstry★2B
0-10000.500
S. Torkelson
S. Torkelson★1B
0-10000.500
J. Jung
J. Jung★3B
0-20000.000
Team4-21000—
PlayerIPHERK
J. Flaherty
J. Flaherty★SP
5.03210
D. Anderson
D. AndersonRP
1.1103
Team6.14213

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

4

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS leads series 2-0

May 4BOSBOS5@DETDET4
May 5BOSBOS10@DETDET3
May 6BOSBOS@DETDETtoday

Season series

BOS leads series 4-2

Apr 17DETDET0@BOSBOS1
Apr 18DETDET4@BOSBOS1
Apr 19DETDET6@BOSBOS2
Apr 20DETDET6@BOSBOS8
May 4BOSBOS5@DETDET4
May 5BOSBOS10@DETDET3
May 6BOSBOS@DETDETtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-11052%
DETDET-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
BOSBOSSP
S. Gray

S. Gray

#54 · 2-1

ERA

4.30

K

13

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/20vsDETDET2.2 IP · 1 ER · 2 K-
4/14@MINMIN4.0 IP · 5 ER · 1 KL(2-1)
4/8vsMILMIL6.1 IP · 0 ER · 2 KW(2-0)
VS
DETDETSP
J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

#9 · 0-2

ERA

5.90

K

32

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vsTEXTEX3.2 IP · 4 ER · 4 K-
4/25@CINCIN2.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 KL(0-2)
4/20@BOSBOS3.1 IP · 0 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
BOSBOS4L · 5R
  1. 1

    J. Duran

    LF · #16

    L
  2. 2

    W. Contreras

    1B · #40

    R
  3. 3

    W. Abreu

    RF · #52

    L
  4. 4

    T. Story

    SS · #10

    R
  5. 5

    M. Yoshida

    DH · #7

    L
  6. 6

    C. Rafaela

    CF · #3

    R
  7. 7

    M. Mayer

    2B · #11

    L
  8. 8

    C. Narvaez

    C · #75

    R
  9. 9

    C. Durbin

    3B · #5

    R
DETDET6L · 3R
  1. 1

    K. McGonigle

    SS · #7

    L
  2. 2

    M. Vierling

    CF · #8

    R
  3. 3

    C. Keith

    3B · #33

    L
  4. 4

    R. Greene

    LF · #31

    L
  5. 5

    D. Dingler

    C · #13

    R
  6. 6

    K. Carpenter

    RF · #30

    L
  7. 7

    Z. McKinstry

    2B · #39

    L
  8. 8

    S. Torkelson

    1B · #20

    R
  9. 9

    J. Jung

    DH · #17

    L

Live · top performers so far

Top 7th
Game flowBOS ↔ DET
Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Strike 2 Looking

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 3 K · 0 ER

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 14 K · 3 ER

How it's going

BOS lead DET 4-0 (Top 7th).

Win probability

DET vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7
BOS4
DET0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 62% WP

Greene · doubled to left.

BOSTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+16pp→ 74% WP

Durbin · doubled to left, Mayer scored, Narváez to third.

BOSTop 4th Inning · 4-0
+15pp→ 88% WP

Narváez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Keith, Yoshida and Rafaela scored on error, Narváez to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567R
BOS00220004
DET000000—0

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · DET won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Durbin 1

2
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0

Inn 7

BOS
DET

Game flow · key plays

  1. T4

    Narváez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Keith, Yoshida and Rafaela scored on error, Narváez to second.

    BOS 4·DET 0

    −15pp

  2. T3

    Duran grounded out to first.

    BOS 1·DET 0

    +5pp

  3. T3

    Durbin doubled to left, Mayer scored, Narváez to third.

    BOS 1·DET 0

    −16pp

  4. T3

    Narváez hit by pitch, Mayer to second.

    BOS 0·DET 0

    −6pp

  5. T3

    Mayer reached on infield single to shortstop.

    BOS 0·DET 0

    −10pp

  6. B2

    Greene doubled to left.

    BOS 0·DET 0

    +6pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DET

Home

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

4

Runs

0

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS -110/DET -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-51.0ppvs pre-game · BOS favored

Leverage

4

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

DET vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    7.7± 4.7low
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    4.6± 3.6low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    4.6± 2.5low

Hits

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.3± 1.9high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 2.3high
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Matt VierlingDET
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.9± 3.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.7± 3.1low
  • Sonny GrayBOS
    2.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    52.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen