Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+4DET

TEX

16-17

DET

17-17

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

33,373 attended

Line movement

106 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

DET no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.5%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 2.5medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.2± 2.3medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 1.1high
Wyatt LangfordTEX
1.4± 1.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Wyatt LangfordTEX
2.6± 2.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.0high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Wyatt LangfordTEX
0.8± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Colt KeithDET
0.6± 2.0high

Earned runs

Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.3medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Jacob deGromTEX
2.5± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

DET

.707

OPS

.719

.710

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.09

3.93

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.82

1.25

WHIP

1.31

1.26

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

TEX 1 · DET 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
DET	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.177	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.212	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.327	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.223	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. OsunaLF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Duran2B	.277	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.202	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.205	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		33	1	7	1	1	2	5

Player

.177

.212

.327

.205

.223

.250

.277

.202

.205

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	2.0	7	5	5	0	2	43
C. QuantrillRP	3.0	2	0	0	2	2	56
P. GrayRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	35
G. CollyerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
Team	8.0	12	5	5	3	7	150

Player

2.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.310	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.259	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.337	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
R. GreeneLF	.298	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.257	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.170	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
J. Jung3B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
H. Lee2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	12	5	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. MonteroSP	6.2	5	1	1	2	2	85
D. AndersonRP	2.1	2	0	0	0	3	28
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	5	113

Team

TEX

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.