• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3WSH
SF

SF

9-13

0
3
WSH

WSH

10-12

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
20,026 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

WSH no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL47.7%39.7%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

SF 0 · WSH 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000000000
WSH000030003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 61-43
62%Last 30 · 324-202
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 19·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSF -143

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off San Francisco Giants, 3–0.

WSH +1.5 cashed (SF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Keibert Ruiz

Keibert Ruiz

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF9-13
0
3
WSH10-12
SF9-13·WSH10-12
SF

SF

9-13

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-55000003
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-33000001
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT26.428
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-22010010
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
0-11000001
D. SusacD. SusacC
0-11000001
Team9-3636090019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
6.0733171
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000010
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
1.0000000
Team8.0733181
WSH

WSH

10-12

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000012
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT26.838
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.496
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-33010002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000002
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-33110000
SPRINT29.899
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
2-33121000
SPRINT25.411
Team7-3131373118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. PoulinP. Poulin★RP
0.2100000
M. MikolasM. MikolasSP
4.0400140
A. AlvarezA. AlvarezRP
4.1400050
Team9.0900190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • R. Ray
    93 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.3 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      44%·84.1 mph·16% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      5%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Winn
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      63%·88.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Brubaker
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.5 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • A. Alvarez
    62 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      39%·83.9 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.1 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Mikolas
    61 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.1 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      50%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·79.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 17SFSF10@WSHWSH5
Apr 18SFSF7@WSHWSH6
Apr 19SFSF0@WSHWSH3today

Season series

SF leads series 2-1

Apr 17SFSF10@WSHWSH5
Apr 18SFSF7@WSHWSH6
Apr 19SFSF0@WSHWSH3today
Jun 9WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 10WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 10WSHWSH@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-14359%
WSHWSH+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
P. Bailey

P. Bailey

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
K. Ruiz

K. Ruiz

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

A. Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

WSH beat SF 3-0.

Win probability

WSH vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 61% WP

Ruiz · reached on infield single to third.

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+17pp→ 77% WP

Ruiz · doubled to left, Nuñez scored.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 0-3
+14pp→ 96% WP

Schmitt · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Devers out at second, Chapman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000000000
WSH00003000—3

Period scoring

SF won 0 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Mead 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
WSH

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  2. T9

    Adames grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  7. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Willy Adames

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  8. T9

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  9. T9

    Susac struck out looking.

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  14. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Daniel Susac

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  15. T9

    Susac hit for Bailey

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  16. T9

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  17. T9

    Gilbert popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  19. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Drew Gilbert

    · ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  20. T9

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  21. T9

    Ramos doubled to right.

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

    −4pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

  30. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    SF 0·WSH 3

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

0

Runs

3

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

11

TB

12

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

9

K

8

18

LOB

13

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 8·SF -143/WSH +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 96
    12
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    14
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 95
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 95
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 93
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

WSH vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175