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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

5-6

4
2
CHW

CHW

4-7

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,750 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CHW no-vig %

42.7%

open 42.7%

+2.0+1.0CHW SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL46.7%38.7%CHW NO-VIG %MODEL 38.9%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · CHW 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000100304
CHW0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Apr 7·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0/VegasBAL -150

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 4–2.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Chase Meidroth

Chase Meidroth

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL5-6
4
2
CHW4-7
BAL5-6·CHW4-7
BAL

BAL

5-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33111022
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44122112
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000010
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-33110022
SPRINT25.310
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22000002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-22000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000021
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
2-33020000
SPRINT27.662
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle1B
0-11001000
L. TaverasL. TaverasCF
0-11000001
Team8-34344841813
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0622060
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000010
G. WolframG. WolframRP
0.2000020
A. NunezA. NunezRP
0.1000010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0000120
Team9.06221120
CHW

CHW

4-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-44121000
SPRINT2744
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.941
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000002
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33010002
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000002
T. MurrayT. Murray★LF
0-33000000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000001
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.597
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT29.294
T. PetersT. PetersCF
0-11000001
M. MurakamiM. Murakami1B
0-11000001
Team6-34342620112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
3.2100580
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.1211110
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0100020
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.1322020
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
0.2111101
B. HudsonB. HudsonRP
1.0000100
Team9.08448131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    101 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·91.2 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·76.9 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      89%·97.1 mph·83% whiff
    • FS
      6%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      60%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.1 mph·100% whiff

CHW

  • S. Smith
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      41%·82.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      37%·94.7 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      4%·89.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      35%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      78%·98.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      22%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      48%·86.4 mph·75% whiff
  • B. Hudson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      7%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Murphy
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·78.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

4

Runs

2

1

Errors

2

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2today
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

Apr 6BALBAL2@CHWCHW1
Apr 7BALBAL4@CHWCHW2today
Apr 8BALBAL5@CHWCHW3
Jun 29CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jun 30CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming
Jul 1CHWCHW@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL-15060%
CHWCHW+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 8th Inning

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H

CHWCHW
C. Meidroth

C. Meidroth

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 4-2. Henderson's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 55% WP

Meidroth · doubled to left, Hill scored.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 71% WP

Alonso · grounded out to shortstop.

BALTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+30pp→ 87% WP

Henderson · homered to right center (387 feet), Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000100304
CHW0020000002

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · CHW won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Meidroth 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Mountcastle 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Henderson 2

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 650 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  3. B9

    Hill flied out to center.

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  8. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Derek Hill

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  10. B9

    Murakami struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

    −6pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  15. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Munetaka Murakami

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  16. B9

    Murakami hit for Acuña

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  18. B9

    Peters struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

    −7pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  24. B9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Tristan Peters

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  25. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  26. B9

    Harris walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

    +8pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 2

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

4

Runs

2

8

Hits

6

1

Errors

2

13

TB

8

1

HR

0

8

BB

1

13

K

12

24

LOB

12

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BAL -150/CHW +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 97
    304
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 96
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 9, 26sim 95
    61
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.2%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175